Raila’s attempt at comeback won’t be a walk in the park

By Makau Mutua

They say what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. That’s why March 4, 2013 was a turning point for Cord leader Raila Odinga. But not in the way you might surmise.

In some quarters, the political obituary of the man they call Agwambo has been written.

In this group are people who hold the view that the former Prime Minister is politically six feet under.

But Mr Odinga’s ardent loyalists fancy him as the second coming of Nebuchadnezzar – with political prowess of Biblical mythic proportions.

Or is Mr Odinga the Biblical Samson who was felled by mere hair loss? We simply won’t know until 2017.

But there is near consensus on this one thing: Mr Odinga isn’t a lion in winter.

There are strong – and honourable – motivations to be either a Railaphobe or Railaphile. I understand that the man isn’t everyone’s cup of tea. I am not talking about tribal bloviators who hate you simply because of the accident of birth in a certain group. No sir – I am referring to honestly held political – and ideological – divergences.

One side of the aisle sees Mr Odinga’s social justice politics as anathema. The side opposite believes Kenya can only be redeemed by a redistributionist state.

A section of vested mandarins see him as the devil incarnate. The poor think of him as their champion. The truth is probably more complicated.

But we know this – Kenya won’t prosper – take off – without uplifting its hoi polloi.

Is Mr Odinga – the heir to his father’s leftist political mantle – the one Kenyans have been waiting for? Or will President Uhuru Kenyatta – the scion of the Burning Spear – deliver Kenyans from their “Egyptian slavery”?

Are we foolish to think that deliverance can only come from either of these two princes? Are they – perhaps – more alike than they are unlike?

This much is clear – they swear they couldn’t be more dissimilar.  The democratic cycle won’t let Kenyans test the truth of these claims until five years hence.

That’s when Mr Kenyatta will defend his crown. Methinks Mr Odinga will stalk the landscape and spend the interim period bulking up to pounce on Mr Kenyatta. He is already doing it through a referendum debate.

First, Mr Odinga has no heir-apparent. That’s why he will still be on the cards in 2017. No one on the opposition benches has the “juice” or panache to electrify the masses the way Mr Odinga does.

I know there are young Turks feeling their oats. But I would urge them to hold their horses because they are still in their political diapers. Don’t believe a word of that “analogue-digital” street talk. It’s nothing but red meat for believers.

I know the so-called co-principals within Cord – Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Senator Moses Wetangula – have designs for 2017.  They are minnows to Mr Odinga’s Mt. Olympus. This means Mr Odinga will most likely take on Mr Kenyatta again in 2017.

As a matter of fact, it’s Mr Odinga – not Mr Musyoka or Mr Wetangula – that Mr Kenyatta is worried about. That’s why Mr Kenyatta has severally – publicly and loudly – chastised Mr Odinga. Mr Odinga is Mr Kenyatta’s historical and ideological nemesis.

There’s even a family feud between them.

Mzee Kenyatta bested the late Jaramogi Oginga Oginga just the way kamwana has trounced the man the Kalenjin-Christened Arap Mibei in 2007.

Mr Kenyatta’s corner is worried that Arap Mibei may split the Rift Valley vote in 2017. That’s why the man from Gatundu doesn’t take kindly to the talk of devolution. He sees that as a wedge between communities in the Rift Valley.

Give it to him, Mr Odinga is a master strategist and brilliant political tactician. But there are those who strongly believe he was out-foxed by Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto. This school of thought believes that Cord ran a shoddy and shambolic campaign.  I think that’s not the whole truth. Nor do I believe that’s why he lost the election.  I will say more about that in a future column.

In his political calculations, Mr Odinga must discharge the burden of history. Although he hasn’t – and wouldn’t say this – the man likely believes that he owes the country one last stab at State House. That’s because he believes he can exorcise the Kenyan demons: historical injustices, tribalisation of the state, marginalisation of the many by the few, and the arrogance of power. He is a man on a mission.

Those touting age as a factor should take a chill pill. Former President Kibaki was first elected at 71 and re-elected at 76.

The world is full of examples of some young men in power with very old ideas. Mr Odinga’s last chapter hasn’t been written, not yet.

I end where I started.  Don’t mistake a lion that’s been through rain for a sheep. The claws can come out any minute.