Hits and misses in agriculture one year after Ruto's ambitious promises

President William Ruto and other officials at the farm of Mama Rose Wangechi a beneficiary of the just launched Mathira Community Water Supply Project, in Ihwagi, Nyeri County. The project will benefit more than 25,000 people.[FILE/Standard] Last November, President William Ruto said the country's efforts to secure food security and stability were on course. He said since February 2023, the Kenya Kwanza government had distributed subsidised fertilisers to 6.45 million registered farmers in 45 counties. This, he said, enabled them to increase their yields, and in 2024, they had procured through e-vouchers and distributed 7 million bags of both planting and top-quality fertilisers to help boost food production across the country. "This intervention will see a projected increase in maize production, for example, to a record 74 million 90-kilogram bags. We have also concluded long-term agreements with 11 suppliers of assorted fertilisers so as to make this commodity available all year round," said Ruto. Reached for comment, the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) confirmed assorted fertilisers have been available throughout the year. "There is fertiliser in the entire network, including assorted types as per the crops farmers registered for. We will conclude the short rains fertiliser programme by December, then start distributing subsidised fertiliser for the long rains," said NCPB senior public relations officer Titus Maiyo. Ruto promised that fertiliser for the long-rain season will be stocked in outlets nationwide, ensuring that farmers are ready to plant, grow and produce. This forward momentum, as he called it, he said, will not only increase the country's agricultural output but also reduce its reliance on costly food imports, securing a more self-reliant and more prosperous Kenya. He said this approach, rooted in his administration's policy to support production rather than subsidised consumption, has already made food more accessible and more affordable to many households. In the sugar sector, he said they have achieved a historic milestone, saying all 17 sugar factories across Kenya were now operational, producing at impressive levels, while four new sugar factories (without mentioning names and where they are being constructed) are under construction. We are not aware of any new sugar factory that has been constructed and opened this year or will be opened next year. What we know is that the government in May last year announced 30-year leasing of four state-owned factories-Nzoia, Chemelil, Sony and Muhoroni-to private companies for revitalisation. The latest sugar factory to be opened was West Valley Sugar Factory in the Kapkormom area of Kericho County, which started operations in 2023. But according to Dr Timothy Njagi, development economist and research fellow at the Africa Network of Agricultural Policy Research (ANAPRI), more factories are not the solution to increasing sugar production. "Because remember every now and then, we are closing factories because they lack cane to process, so we do not need more sugar factories. We just need to make sure that the ones that are supported are available. If this promise was made last year, then that one has not been delivered," said Dr Njagi. In July alone, he said, domestic sugar production reached 84,000 metric tons, surpassing the national monthly consumption average of 40,000 metric tons. "For the first time in recent history, Kenya is producing enough sugar to meet our local demand. This success is attributed to many factors: subsidised fertiliser for sugarcane farmers, an additional 500,000 acres that have been brought under production, and improved management of the sugar sector, which has revitalised production and brought the industry back to life," said Ruto. He added: "I just signed, as you know, the new sugar laws to provide further policy guidance as we seek to be a sugar-exporting country shortly." However, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), sugar imports surged significantly in 2025 due to a sharp decline in domestic sugarcane production. The KNBS said the value of imports for "sugars, molasses, and honey" rose by 56.9 percent in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The value stood at Sh13.4 billion in quarter two of 2025, up from Sh8.5 billion the previous year. In September this year, sugar industry official data showed a 15.8 percent decline in domestic sugar production from 384,356 tonnes in the first six months of 2024 to 323,752 metric tonnes in the same period this year. Across most months in the first half of the year, the fall in production was evident, with June's output at 38,339 tonnes, nearly half down from 75,500 tonnes in June 2024. Also, April and May recorded significant declines, with production at 36,194 tonnes and 32,760 tonnes, respectively, compared to 59,263 tonnes and 56,271 tonnes in 2024. Dr Njagi said even fact-checkers said that the statement on increased production was misleading. "One, you cannot claim that our production is great. So you cannot compare it with a monthly production number because remember, sugarcane takes 18 months, because it's not like we are producing just for a month. So we should be comparing with annual production," said Dr Njagi. He added: "Then secondly, we still have significant imports for sugar in the last two years. If we are not the ones who are consuming that sugar, then it raises a number of questions. Who is importing sugar into Kenya, and where does it go, and why is it profitable for somebody? If we say that sugar is coming to Kenya and going to other countries, what is the loophole that we have in our market that allows that?" The development economist wondered if Ruto said production has increased, why is it that the price of sugar has continued to rise, now a 2kg packet is selling at between Sh350 to Sh355. In the coffee sector, Ruto said they are on track to increase exports from 51,000 metric tons that year to 150,000 metric tons by 2027. Statistics from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) for January to July, however, show that coffee exports have slightly declined from 2,641 metric tons to 2,620 metric tons. The government, he said, has also raised disbursements from the Cherry Advance Fund from 2.7 billion to 6 billion Kenyan, complemented by an additional disbursement of Sh1.5 billion by the Commodities Fund. "In coffee, I think the government should do more. One, remember we are still way, way below our peak production for coffee. The highest we ever did was 200,000 metric tons in around the mid-1980s. If you look at our production curve since the mid-80s, it has been down, down. There is a need to deal with governance issues in small cooperatives," he said.

Hits and misses in agriculture one year after Ruto's ambitious promises

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