How Raila Odinga's handshakes cause trouble in paradise

President William Ruto (centre), Deputy President Kithure Kindiki (right) and ODM leader Raila Odinga arrive for the UDA-ODM Parliamentary Group meeting in Karen, Nairobi. [PCS] Kithure Kindiki appears to have become the latest victim in the long line of deputy presidents and vice presidents who have found themselves politically sidelined whenever Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga strikes deals with sitting presidents. With the 2027 General Election on the horizon, the Deputy President increasingly finds himself relegated to the periphery as Raila becomes more visible at the heart of power. Over the past few months, Raila's influence on President William Ruto's administration has grown, while Kindiki has been preoccupied with countrywide tours doling out funds through controversial economic empowerment programmes. Last week, National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung'wah made remarks that seemed to cast doubt on Kindiki's suitability as President Ruto's running mate in 2027. Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda has also previously suggested that the Deputy President position may be reserved for an ODM nominee. For close to three decades, Raila has mastered the art of striking behind-the-scenes political arrangements-often referred to as "handshakes"-after contentious elections. These deals, while stabilising governments, have frequently destabilised the positions of vice and deputy presidents. Saitoti sidelined The pattern dates back to 1997 when Raila joined President Daniel arap Moi's government and later merged his National Development Party (NDP) with Kanu. As a reward, the then Energy Cabinet minister was appointed Kanu Secretary-General, a powerful position that saw him outmanoeuvre then Vice President George Saitoti. Saitoti, isolated and sidelined, eventually withdrew from the race for Kanu deputy chairman at a charged meeting at the Kasarani gymnasium, uttering the now-famous words: "There come a time when the nation is more important than an individual." At the time, then Eldoret North MP Ruto was appointed Kanu Director of Elections. Ruto was among the politicians who had played a key role in bringing Raila into the ruling party. In the post-2007 election arrangement, Moi gave Raila two Cabinet seats and a few more positions of assistant minister. One of his confidants, Adhu Awiti, learned about the appointment as Minister for Planning while travelling from Kisumu to Nairobi using public transport. Raila was appointed Minister for Energy, a position he held from June 2001 to the last quarter of 2002, when he left government to rejoin the opposition. Raila's NDP fully merged with Kanu in 2001, cementing his position in the Moi administration. But the alliance with Moi was short-lived. After Moi named Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred successor in 2002, Raila felt betrayed. He exited Kanu and led a group of rebels, including Saitoti, Kalonzo Musyoka, Moody Awori, and Joseph Kamotho, into the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc), the opposition coalition which propelled Mwai Kibaki to victory. But this coalition too did not last due to what Raila's side said was a dishonouring of a pre-election Memorandum of Understanding between Kibaki's side and that of the former Kanu rebels. By the 2007 election, the two sides had gone their separate ways, mainly after Raila and his allies campaigned against the 2005 referendum on a proposed new constitution that Kibaki's government backed. The fallout saw the birth of the Orange Democratic Party (ODM) and Raila running against Kibaki in the 2007 presidential election. Raila once again shook the political order when he rejected Kibaki's re-election and plunged the country into post-election violence. The ensuing National Accord-brokered by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan-created a Grand Coalition Government with Raila as Prime Minister, effectively diluting Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka's influence. Kalonzo's tribulations In 2009, a fresh power tussle emerged over the leadership of the House Business Committee (HBC) in Parliament. While the post had traditionally belonged to the Vice President, Raila argued that as Prime Minister, he should assume the role of Leader of Government Business, citing global precedent and constitutional provisions. This sparked a standoff between ODM and Kalonzo's ODM-Kenya, with Raila insisting that the position rightly belonged to the party with the majority in Parliament. At one point, Raila declared at a funeral in Eldoret: "Where on earth has this happened? This seat belongs to ODM and we cannot allow another mistake to occur." Once again, Ruto-then Minister for Agriculture-sided with Raila, telling supporters. "If they feel the post of Prime Minister is superior to that of President, then President Kibaki should become Prime Minister and Raila becomes President." Eventually, then National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende intervened, creating a power-sharing arrangement that saw both Raila and Kalonzo sit on the committee, with Raila taking the lead in answering parliamentary questions. Ruto's turn In 2018, following his defeat in the 2017 election which was nullified by the Supreme Court and a boycott of the repeat poll, Raila returned to the negotiating table. He struck yet another deal-this time with President Uhuru Kenyatta-culminating in the famous "Handshake" at the steps of Harambee House. Though the move restored calm in the country, it severely strained Uhuru's relationship with then Deputy President Ruto. Ruto frequently accused Raila and Uhuru of using the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) to sideline him and derail the Jubilee Party's "Big Four" development agenda. Many analysts saw the handshake as a strategic move by Raila to position himself for Uhuru's endorsement ahead of the 2022 General Election. Although he got the endorsement from Uhuru and his Jubilee Party, Raila still lost to Ruto, the UDA candidate, in the hotly contested 2022 General Election. Less than two year's later, Ruto's hold on to power was severely shaken by mass protests that erupted nationwide against the controversial Finance Bill 2024 and other governance issues. The protests, largely driven by Gen Z youth, became another turning point in Raila's political career and the beginning of trouble for another deputy president. Gachagua ouster Once again, President Ruto turned to Raila-this time inviting ODM into government, in a move interpreted as an effort to neutralise both the street protests and then Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. By aligning with Raila, Ruto managed to suppress the Gen Z revolt, weaken the opposition, and assert control over his administration's agenda. Shortly after, Gachagua was impeached-with crucial support from ODM legislators. Though Kindiki was seen as a natural successor to the deputy presidency, his profile has been eclipsed as Raila assumes an increasingly central role in government affairs. Raila and Ruto are now calling for a "national dialogue" through what is being branded as a national conclave. Analysts say this may be yet another ploy to regain political control by co-opting young people into the power-sharing arrangement-possibly as a strategy to revitalise their political fortunes. The cycle is all too familiar: a post-election crisis, a handshake, a deal brokered in secrecy, and a deputy president left politically bruised. Now, as 2027 draws near, Kindiki seems poised to walk the same political tightrope that entangled Saitoti, Kalonzo, Ruto and Gachagua before him-all in the wake of Raila's strategic alliances with the presidency.

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