Finance Bill 2023: Poisoned chalice that threatens Ruto's 2027 re-election bid

Majority Leader in the National Assembly Kimani Ichungwa, Treasury CS Njuguna Ndung'u, Majority Chief Whip Silvanus Osoro and Kilifi North MP Owen Baya during the reading of the 2023/2024 Budget Statement in parliament on June 15, 2023. [Elvis Ogina, Standard]

"Many people tell me I should think about my second term. My second term will be meaningless if my first achieves nothing. I am not here so that I can have a second term, I am here because I want to make a difference. Kenyans have given me an opportunity to make sure we remove slums, create jobs and improve our manufacturing. I am focused on that, the second term will sort itself out," said the President during Kenya's first urban forum earlier this week.

Political pundits now argue that should Ruto choose to go the tax route, he should be ready to tame the run-away corruption in government and its agencies and implement reforms in the judiciary to inspire confidence from the public that their billions will be well administered.

On the flip side, they warn that Ruto's intensified dalliance with the Bretton Wood Institutions could deal him a political blow ahead of the 2027 general polls.

"The taxation measures Ruto seeks to implement which are causing a lot of friction are not going to raise enough revenue to get us out of economic plunder and are not worth it. If you measure the money going to be collected through a doubling of the VAT, for instance, versus the anger that it is causing, then Ruto is better off listening to the people and abandoning the tax measures," said Pro Herman Manyora, a political commentator.

Excessive leaning

He further warned: "Ruto's excessive leaning towards the IMF will only lead him to where it has led other governments, which is to conflict, and this will cost him his re-election bid."

Another political analyst, Tom Mboya, warned that Ruto's move to implement punitive taxes would only impact him politically in the short term and that he has time to win back the masses before the next elections.

"The truth of the matter is that we as Kenyans are damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. We should brace ourselves for tougher times either way. The bigger question should however be whether the Finance Bill has a solid plan to put us on a path to economic recovery," said Mboya.

A showdown now looms in parliament next week as the defining vote for or against the Finance Bill 2023 is cast. If approved, the Bill will be forwarded to the Head of State for assent.