Sakaja, Lenku to carry the day in gubernatorial race, TIFA poll projects

Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja in Kileleshwa, Nairobi on Thursday, July 28, 2022. [Samson Wire, Standard].

Johnson Sakaja of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) would carry the day in the Nairobi gubernatorial race if elections were held today, the latest TIFA poll indicates.

The senator would defeat Jubilee Party's Polycarp Igathe by getting 53 per cent of the votes against the former Equity chief commercial officer's 36 per cent.

Sakaja's popularity has grown steadily since May, with the lawmaker posting 23 per cent that month, 40 per cent in June and the current 53 per cent in August.

Sakaja's appeal to the youth and perceived knowledge of city politics have endeared him to the electorate.

TIFA says an undecided lot of voters in the Nairobi gubernatorial race have decreased from half the population in May to just 10 per cent in August.

In the senatorial race, Edwin Sifuna of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) would emerge victorious with 47 per cent of the votes, against UDA's Bishop Margaret Wanjiru's 19 per cent.

Thirty-three (33) per cent of the voters say they are undecided in the senatorial election.

In the Woman Representative race, the incumbent Esther Passaris of ODM would carry the day with 44 per cent against UDA's Millicent Omanga's 28 per cent.

Since May, Passaris has maintained a steady lead against Omanga in the opinion polls.

In May, Passaris had 28 per cent, followed by 32 per cent in June and the current 44 per cent in August.

Omanga, on the other hand, had a following of 6 per cent on May, 19 per cent in June and the current 28 per cent in August.

Twenty-seven (27) per cent of voters remain undecided in the Nairobi woman representative contest.

Nairobi has a total of 2.41 million voters as per IEBC data.


In the neighbouring Kajiado County, the incumbent governor Joseph Ole Lenku of ODM would carry the day with 36 per cent of the votes, followed by Katoo Ole Metito of UDA and ex-governor David Nkedianye of Jubilee Party.

Metito and Nkedianye each have 25 per cent of the vote, says Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA).

In the gubernatorial race, the undecided lot is 13 per cent.

In the Kajiado senatorial race, former ODM National Elections Board (NEB) chairperson Judith Pareno leads with a popularity score of 20 per cent. She is followed by Moses Ole Sakuda of Jubilee and Seki Ole Kanar of UDA, who have an approval score of 19 per cent each.

Thirty-seven (37) per cent of the voters in Kajiado County remain undecided in the senatorial race.

In the woman representative contest, Sankaire Sopiato of UDA leads with 23 per cent. She is followed by Moinkett Sayianka of ODM with 13 per cent; Lucy Mathenge of The Service Party (TSP) and Simayiai Rakita of Jubilee tie with 7 per cent each.

The undecided voters in the Woman Representative seat are 43 per cent of the respondents polled.

Kajiado County has 463,000 voters.

The data above was collected from 520 Nairobians and 527 voters from Kajiado County.

The Nairobi respondents participated in the survey on August 1, while those from Kajiado County took part in the opinion polling between July 27 and July 28, 2022.

TIFA engaged the respondents in telephonic interviews, placing the margin of error at plus (+) or minus (-) four (4) in either county.