How black tax, rising living costs are reshaping family size

Why are many women choosing not to give birth despite constant talk of “baby fever” on social media? (Photo: iStock)

The birth rate in Kenya is steadily declining. It dropped from 32.67 births per 1,000 people in 2010 to 26.79 births per 1,000 in 2025. The trend is clear: Kenya’s population growth is slowing. The demographic chill long associated with Western nations appears to be catching up with us, but without the economic prosperity that accompanied it in those countries. Why, then, are Kenyan women having fewer children?

The idea of black tax led me to this question. I was reflecting on when, or whether, this culture of supporting extended family will ever end. Ironically, I realised that urban, formally employed individuals tend to have only the number of children they can reasonably support, particularly where government services such as education and healthcare exist. Meanwhile, many rural households continue to have larger families despite limited financial capacity.

Relatives fortunate enough to secure employment are then expected to assist in raising these children. In this sense, black tax is unlikely to disappear anytime soon. It may persist until most citizens are urbanised, educated and economically independent.

Why are many women choosing not to give birth despite constant talk of “baby fever” on social media? Whenever the weather turns cold or rainy, jokes circulate warning women to be cautious, good weather for romance passes quickly, but the financial responsibility of raising a child remains.

Traditionally, mothers were expected to sacrifice personal ambitions to raise children. Today, women who make such sacrifices often appear unusual, as parenting roles have become more flexible. Men can as well stay with the children while mothers work.

Modernity and increased social mobility have given women agency and choice. When women control their finances and reproductive decisions, motherhood becomes optional rather than inevitable. For some, having a child becomes a personal milestone rather than a fulfilment of societal expectations tied to marriage. Relationships and careers are increasingly pursued on individual terms, and the aspiration of becoming a wife or mother no longer become priority.

At the same time, Kenya exports large numbers of young workers at their peak reproductive years. In regions such as the Gulf States, migrant workers rarely have the opportunity to raise families while employed abroad. In Western countries, the high cost of living discourages childbearing. Having children often requires one parent to step away from employment, creating significant economic strain.

From another perspective, when a man’s financial prospects improve, he may seek marriage or fatherhood. In practice, men often feel they must achieve economic stability before starting families. Relationships, therefore, become intertwined with financial capability.

However, many men encounter women who prefer to negotiate relationships on their own terms. The increasingly common outcome is co-parenting arrangements, which can become conflict-prone in a generation that sometimes lacks strong conflict-resolution skills. For many men, co-parenting while a child is still young may feel emotionally and financially challenging, particularly without full custody.

There is a common belief that women are emotional while men are pragmatic. Reality appears more complex. Women may appear emotional on the surface yet make deeply pragmatic reproductive choices, carefully selecting partners and timing motherhood. With greater access to information and healthcare, unintended pregnancies are increasingly managed through informed decisions.

Men, conversely, may present themselves as logical and calculating but often become deeply emotional once invested in a relationship. Many devote significant resources and energy to romantic pursuits, revealing emotional vulnerability beneath outward pragmatism. This demographic challenge first emerged in Western societies, prompting them to import labour, even for critical sectors such as national defence, while simultaneously investing heavily in automation and artificial intelligence.

If birth rates continue to decline, policymakers must begin planning accordingly. Should Kenya continue building more schools, or focus on improving the quality of existing institutions? Labour export remains a significant economic contributor. If overseas employment continues to sustain the economy, the country may eventually need policies that encourage family formation and childbearing to maintain a steady workforce.

This is a reality Kenya may soon have to confront.