Why Raila avoided full ODM reshuffle

By VITALIS KIMUTAI and PETER ATSIAYA

Prime Minister Raila Odinga bought time on naming a substantive replacement for Musalia Mudavadi at the Ministry of Local Government to reconcile competing regional interests that threaten ODM unity.

Raila also appeared not keen yet to get his deputy in Cabinet power flow-chart out of the Deputy Prime Minister’s office despite challenge to him he should not only have resigned as minister, but also as DPM and Sabatia MP. The PM and his allies had argued that since Mudavadi held these positions on an ODM ticket and having defected, he should forfeit them.

It is believed the premier may not have been keen to kick Mudavadi out of the DPM chair so as not to inflame the western Kenya ODM bloc. It is only last week that his supporters clashed with those of the Sabatia MP in Vihiga.

It is also believed the PM may not have been too sure if he would pull through the task of removing Mudavadi as DPM since by acceding to his ‘consultation’ to remove him, President Kibaki would reignite debate on why his ally Uhuru Kenyatta should still hold a similar position when he had quit as minister over The Hague indictment.

Though President Kibaki announced Gumo’s additional responsibility, it is the PM who made the decision in accordance with the National Accord. It empowers him to shuffle ministers on his side of the coalition with the President, as the appointing authority, making the formal announcement.

However, the two principals must agree on the changes, which raises the question whether the PM might have also tried to sack Mudavadi as DPM.

In defending his decision to remain as DPM Mudavadi he argued it was negotiated in the National Accord, which is protected in the Constitution. 

If the PM broached the issue, could it be the President have stated only Parliament could remove Mudavadi from the DPM’s position, the same reasoning Uhuru advanced?

Competing interests
So in a week Kenyans expected Raila to seal Mudavadi’s fate in the Cabinet, and despite the bitter exchanges between their teams in the last two weeks, the PM chose to appoint Regional Development minister Fred Gumo, as acting Minister for Local Government.

By keeping the Cabinet portfolio within the Western fold albeit on acting capacity though Busia-born Gumo, the PM also minimised the risk of playing into competing interests in the Western ODM bloc within ODM, or picking an ‘outsider’ and risking accusations he had ‘sold out’ a seat meant for Western in the Cabinet. 

This is a modification of the strategy Raila adopted when ODM Chairman Henry Kosgey stepped down from Cabinet because of a court case.  He again appointed an acting Industrialisation minister, but now from the Coast – Amason Kingi.

If he had given the position out on a substantive appointment to someone from the Rift Valley at the time he risked antagonising ODM support in the Rift Valley. The PM was was then fighting an even bigger political war with Eldoret North MP William Ruto, another former deputy party leader, who also quit ODM.

But by stopping at a bigger change in ODM wing of the Grand Coalition Cabinet, could Raila have bought time for a more drastic reshuffle that would map out his presidential election line-up? Or is it that naming a substantive appointee proved a bigger challenge given the potential to split the party, which is facing a crisis?

The answers to the two burning questions could be discerned from the fact that his action definitely gave him time to negotiate a compromise within the party to pre-empt a falling out when the final appointments are made.

The PM has on numerous occasions avoided filling Kosgey’s former office despite the length of time his case has dragged in court, obviously out of political considerations.

He appears keen to send the message that the slot is reserved for Kosgey, who has stuck with him.
The Cabinet slot left vacant by Mudavadi’s exit, as well as the possibility of DPM’s office he was holding falling vacant, reportedly attracted many ‘suitors’.  ODM politicians from Western, South Rift, and Coast were angling for them.

Angling for position
In Western, Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba and his Mumias counterpart Ben Washiali are said to be angling for the position. But leaders from the South Rift have, too, staked a claim to the Cabinet position, saying it would address the skewed ministerial appointments that favoured the North Rift.

After the sacking of Mvita MP Najib Balala as Tourism minister, Raila assured Mombasa County that a “ministerial position would be available soon”. This was meant to cool the uproar after Voi MP’s Dan Mwanzo replaced Balala.

The falling out between Raila and Mudavadi has divided MPs from Western.  Mudavadi has the upper hand as majority of the MPs in ODM and other political parties have shown their support for his bid for president on United Democratic Forum party ticket.

MPs loyal to Mudavadi include Assistant ministers George Khaniri (Hamisi), and Manyala Keya (Lurambi), Justus Kizito (Shinyalu), David Were (Matungu), Evans Akhula (Khwisero), Yusuf Chanzu (Vihiga), and Chris Okemo (Nambale).
New Ford-Kenya’s Soita Shitanda (Housing minister and Malava MP) and Bonny Khalwale (Ikolomani) also support Mudavadi.

Members of Parliament from Western allied to Raila include Cabinet ministers Paul Otuoma (Youths Affairs) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Planning), Assistant ministers Alfred Khangati (Kanduyi), and Sospeter Ojaamong (Teso). Others are Alfred Sambu (Webuye), Wilber Otichilo (Emuhaya), Ben Washiali (Mumias), and Alfred Odhiambo (Butula), and Namwamba.

Energy Assistant Minister Langat Magerer said the South Rift deserved a ministerial post in the expected reshuffle, owing to the support the region’s residents gave to ODM and Raila in the 2007 General Election.

“In the Grand Coalition Government, ministerial posts were negotiated on the basis of parties and not individuals — it is not a personal property,” Magerer said.

Magerer said that as such loyal party MPs should be rewarded, as the country prepares for elections.

“The game has changed in the political scene ... it is an opportunity for the PM to shed excess baggage especially those with ministerial portfolios, but are not doing much for the country and ODM,” Magerer said.