How Trump's new policies are pushing Kenya towards China

President William Ruto, accompanied by his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping inspects a guard of honor at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. [PHOTO REBECCA NDUKU/PCS. 24/4/2025] The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee warns that the Trump administration's aggressive trade policies and deep cuts to diplomatic and foreign aid programmes are eroding America's global standing while creating openings for China to expand its influence in key partner nations like Kenya. According to a new report by Democratic members of the Foreign Relations Committee, President Donald Trump's administration's "Sweeping and non-strategic cuts to US diplomatic tools and international standing, his trade war against allies and partners, and the gutting of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM)-among many other actions-have deeply undermined US competitiveness vis-a-vis China." The 23-page report, titled "The Price of Retreat: America Cedes Global Leadership to China," provides a comprehensive assessment of how Washington's withdrawal from international engagement is reshaping global alliances. It highlights how Washington's withdrawal from international engagement creates a vacuum Beijing is eager to fill. It states: "As America retreats from global leadership under the Trump Administration, China is well-positioned and eager to exploit this moment of American disengagement." Its release comes at a critical moment for US-Kenya relations, with punishing tariffs set to take effect on August 1 that could slash $100 million (Sh13 billion) from Kenya's export earnings to the United States. Kenyan manufacturers are bracing for severe economic consequences as the Trump administration prepares to reinstate 10 per cent tariffs on key exports. The move comes after failed negotiations during a 90-day grace period that was granted in April. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made the Trump administration's position clear in a recent CNN interview, stating bluntly: "The President has been clear-no more extensions. If you don't move things along, you boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level." The timing couldn't be worse for Kenya's economy. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which provides duty-free access for many Kenyan goods to the US market, is set to expire in September 2025. The combination of new tariffs and Agoa's potential expiration has created what industry leaders describe as an existential threat to Kenya's manufacturing sector, particularly its burgeoning apparel industry. "We built entire factories, hired thousands of workers, and established supply chains based on Agoa access," said one Nairobi-based factory owner. "Now we're being told the rules have changed overnight. We're not just facing lost profits-we're looking at complete business collapse." The Kenya Association of Manufacturers estimates the tariffs could wipe out $72 million (Sh9.3 billion) in annual exports and put 600,000 jobs at risk. Particularly vulnerable are the textile factories in Export Processing Zones around Nairobi, where workers-many of them young women-earn wages that support entire families. Agricultural exports The new US Senate report documents how US policy shifts are accelerating Kenya's economic realignment toward China. During President William Ruto's April 2025 state visit to Beijing, the two nations signed 22 new agreements covering infrastructure, trade, and agricultural exports. While Kenyan officials prefer balanced relations with both powers, the practical realities of US trade policies are forcing difficult choices, the US Senators suggest. Their report highlights several areas where the US retreat has created space for Chinese advancement. The report was compiled by US Senators on the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. They include Jeanne Shaheen (Ranking Member), Chris Coons, Chris Murphy, Tim Kaine, Jeff Merkley and Brian Schatz. Others are Cory Booker, Chris Van Hollen, Tammy Duckworth and Jacky Rosen. They point out that a $60 million (Sh7.8 billion) Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) programme to develop Nairobi's Bus Rapid Transit system remains frozen amid the administration's broader review of foreign assistance. They point out that Chinese firms have moved aggressively to finance and build major transportation projects across Kenya, including the extension of the $3.2 billion (Sh416 billion) Nairobi-Mombasa standard gauge railway completed in 2017. Plans to upgrade the Manda Bay runway near Camp Simba-a key facility for US counterterrorism operations in East Africa-have stalled due to funding delays. The report notes that over the past decade, China's share of Kenya's military imports has grown from nearly zero to 50 per cent, with Beijing now providing annual training for hundreds of Kenyan security personnel. Aviation advisory The US reportedly terminated a $2.5 million (Sh325 million) aviation advisory programme for Kenyan peacekeepers in March 2025, even as China expands its participation in UN peacekeeping missions across Africa. The US Senate report frames these Kenya-specific developments as part of a dangerous global trend. "The administration's sweeping and non-strategic cuts to our diplomatic tools, its trade war against allies and partners, and the gutting of USAID and USAGM have deeply undermined US competitiveness vis-a-vis China," the report states. Particular concern is focused on proposed cuts to the MCC, which the report describes as "a highly transparent US development agency and proven effective tool for countering China's Belt and Road Initiative." Secretary of State Marco Rubio has defended the Trump administration's approach, arguing the tariffs are necessary to correct decades of trade imbalances. "This isn't about one country or one region," Rubio said at a recent press briefing. "We're finally putting America first after years of bad deals." The report, however, outlines an alternative detailed strategy to rebuild US influence, including Emergency funding to restore critical foreign assistance programmes, legislation to block proposed cuts to the MCC and USAID and new exchange programmes to counter Chinese soft power. They also advocate for congressional reassertion of authority over trade policy and enhanced security cooperation with key partners like Kenya. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the committee member emphasised the urgency of action. As the August 1 Trump tariff deadline approaches, Kenyan business owners are making contingency plans. Some are exploring new markets in Europe and Asia, while others are considering relocating operations to countries that still enjoy preferential US trade access. "The irony is painful," said a senior Kenyan foreign affairs ministry official who sought anonymity to speak freely. "America says it wants to counter China in Africa, but its policies are practically handing opportunities to Beijing on a silver platter." The Senate Foreign Relations Committee Minority Report emphasises that "while serious damage has been inflicted on US credibility, diplomatic tools and international leadership over the last six months, it is not too late for the executive and legislative branches to reestablish and robustly fund the tools America needs to compete effectively with China."

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