Explained: Why this January is feeling extra hot

A young girl fetches underground water from a dry riverbed along River Katalwa in Mwingi. January 2026 has been unusually hot across Kenya, with temperatures soaring above normal. [File, Standard] January 2026 has been unusually hot across Kenya, leaving many Kenyans questioning whether the country is experiencing a heat wave or its normal hot season. The numbers confirm the unusual heat. On January 4, Nairobi hit 37.3 degrees Celsius, the hottest day the city has ever recorded for this month. Temperatures across Kenya have climbed more than two degrees above normal. When a heat wave warning went viral on social media last week, the Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya MET) quickly dismissed it. "There is no heat wave," the department said. "January is always hot." "Current temperatures are within the normal seasonal range for January, which is climatologically one of the hottest months in Kenya," acting Kenya MET Director Edward Muriuki said in a statement on Tuesday, January 27. So is this January unusually hot or just normal? Both. Here is why. January has always been hot in Kenya due to a predictable weather pattern. From November to March, winds blow from the northeast, carrying hot, dry air from the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf toward East Africa. These winds are called the northeast monsoon. The winds bring clear skies with little to no rain. Without clouds to block the sun or rain to cool the air, temperatures climb. This happens every year during this period, which is why January, February, and March are typically Kenya's hottest months. But this seasonal heat is now supercharged by decades of warming. Kenya's average annual temperature has risen by approximately one degree Celsius since the 1960s. That seemingly small increase means every January is now starting from a higher baseline than the Januaries of previous years. The result: January 2026 temperatures are "normal" by today's climate standards but abnormal compared to historical records. This is why Nairobians feel the heat is unusual even as meteorologists classify it as seasonal. According to the weatherman, the numbers clearly illustrate this paradox. Across the wider region, the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Centre (ICPAC) reported temperature anomalies exceeding two degrees Celsius across Sudan, South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia during the third week of January. Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania also recorded above-normal temperatures. These anomalies represent the seasonal northeast monsoon heat layered on top of decades of climate warming. The monsoon brings the hot, dry conditions. Climate change has also raised the temperature floor, and together, they produce the unusually hot conditions residents are experiencing. These readings might seem to contradict Kenya MET's assurance that everything is normal. But both statements are technically correct, revealing how climate change has quietly rewritten what 'normal' means. The warming trend is undeniable. Kenya's average annual temperature has risen by approximately one degree Celsius since the 1960s. Kenya experienced its warmest year on record in 2023, part of a global pattern of rising temperatures driven by climate change. This one-degree shift may sound modest, but it transforms seasonal heat patterns. A January that once peaked at 26 degrees Celsius now reaches 28 degrees Celsius. What was an extreme January heat day in the 1980s is now an average January day in the 2020s. So, when does hot weather become a heat wave? The weatherman has developed location-specific thresholds based on research using temperature records and health data from major urban centres. The study analysed hospital visits, admissions, and deaths between 2011 and 2020, comparing them with temperature patterns to identify when heat poses clear health risks. Drying farmland due to extreme dry conditions in the coast region. [File,Standard] What makes a heat wave? The department further defines a heat wave as three or more consecutive days of extremely high daytime temperatures that exceed locally determined thresholds and are associated with increased health risks. The thresholds are 32 degrees Celsius for Nairobi, 37 degrees Celsius for Kisumu, and 36 degrees Celsius for Mombasa. These reflect local climate conditions and observed links between high temperatures and increased hospital visits, admissions, and mortality. "A heat wave is declared when temperatures exceed location-specific thresholds for several consecutive days and are significantly above the long-term average, posing a clear risk to health, livelihoods, and infrastructure," Muriuki explains. The research found a positive linkage between high temperatures and hospital admissions across all three cities. March 2016 emerged as a severe heat episode, with Nairobi recording 13 days above 30 degrees Celsius, Kisumu experiencing seven days above 37 degrees Celsius, and Mombasa enduring 20 days above 35 degrees Celsius. By this standard, Kenya's current conditions do not qualify. While hot temperatures remain within expected seasonal limits and have not persistently crossed extreme thresholds over a wide area for three consecutive days. But there is a problem: as the planet warms, the "average" temperature used in that calculation keeps rising. Today's January heat is hotter than the normal January heat of 30 years ago, with the baseline shifting upward. Kenya MET expects the hot conditions to continue through early February. The department forecast average daytime temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius over coastal regions, north-eastern and north-western Kenya, parts of the south-eastern lowlands, the Rift Valley, and Western Kenya. However, relief may be on the horizon. ICPAC, in its regional climate outlook for the March to May 2026 rainfall season on January 27, indicated a 45 per cent probability of wetter-than-normal conditions over much of the Greater Horn of Africa, including central to western Kenya. The forecast also predicts warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the region during this period. "Early warning services are critical in mitigating climate risks, providing timely information that enables governments, communities, and institutions to prepare for and respond effectively to climate-related hazards," adds Muriuki. The highest temperatures are being recorded in coastal, north-eastern and north-western Kenya, driven by low elevation, arid conditions and sparse vegetation. Inland regions such as the Rift Valley and Lake Victoria Basin are also warm, while high-altitude areas remain cooler, especially at night. Football fan quenches thirst under scorching sun during half time in FKF Premier League match between Kariobangi Sharks and Nzoia Sugar at Utali Sports Club. Feb 8, 2023. [Jonah Onyango, Standard] So, why the intense heat? But several factors make this normal seasonal heat feel more intense than usual. High humidity, especially in coastal and lake basin areas, makes temperatures feel hotter than normal. Reduced cloud cover allows more direct solar radiation to reach the ground. Cities face greater impacts from extreme heat compared to rural regions. Urban heat island effects in cities such as Nairobi and Mombasa, where buildings and paved surfaces retain heat, amplify the sensation of warmth. The interaction between air pollution and temperature, combined with urban sprawl, often characterised by unplanned informal settlements, compounds the problem. "Changes in daily routines, health conditions, and increased public awareness due to social media discussions can heighten people's perception of heat stress," states Muriuki. The weatherman advises residents to drink plenty of water, limit exposure to direct sunlight, and avoid demanding outdoor activities during afternoon hours when temperatures peak. Kenya MET issued specific guidance for vulnerable groups, including the elderly, young children, pregnant women, outdoor workers, and people with chronic illnesses. Research has shown these groups face disproportionate risks during extreme heat events. People living in informal, unplanned settlements in urban areas are also vulnerable. Vulnerable groups should stay well hydrated, avoid prolonged exposure to direct sunlight, especially during the hottest part of the day, wear light clothing and ensure adequate ventilation indoors. The department is working with Nairobi County officials to develop and implement a Heat Action Plan for Nairobi County, and will design and operationalise a heat early warning system. Temperatures will keep rising with climate projections suggesting Kenya's temperature could increase by 1.7 degrees Celsius by the 2050s and 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century if current emissions continue.

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