Political Tsunami? Opposition races to build mega coalition against Ruto in 2027

A major political shift is looming in the country’s political landscape as critics of President William Ruto’s administration move to assemble a formidable coalition aimed at constraining his power and unseating him in next year’s General Election.

Signs of the plan are increasingly shaping ongoing political realignments, potentially disrupting the President’s re-election bid and seeking to exploit perceived weaknesses in his administration to advance the push to make him a one-term president.

The Sunday Standard has established that opposition leaders have reverted to a familiar political playbook—forming a broad coalition and urging supporters to set aside individual ambitions in favour of a united front against the President.

The plan seeks to bring together leaders from the United Opposition,  ODM’s Linda Mwananchi initiative and other critics of the UDA administration to form a powerful bloc aimed at eroding the President’s support across regions and testing the strength of his political base.

However, some analysts caution that the grouping should proceed with restraint, arguing that the leaders would be better off first consolidating their individual support bases before merging into a unified force in the later stages of the campaign to unseat President Ruto.

“They will knock him out. Yet it’s too early to do that. His money will infiltrate them. If they are serious, everyone should focus on building their own ethos and huge following till early next year,” said communication specialist Barrack Muluka.

From recent statements by the leaders, as well as information from sources familiar with the talks, the momentum appears to have already taken shape, with key figures seemingly aligned on a shared script to build what some describe as an “army of convenience” to challenge Ruto.

If the plan succeeds, the country could once again witness a repeat of past mega coalitions that rattled ruling establishments, as rivals set aside differences to rally behind a single presidential contender.

The team includes, among others, Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua, ODM’s Linda Mwananchi figures James Orengo, Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino, Godfrey Osotsi and Richard Onyonka, as well as Martha Karua's PLP, DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.

Others are also former allies of the President, now seeking to revive their political careers and increasingly anchoring their campaigns on anti-Ruto rhetoric.

Cohesive agenda

President Ruto is familiar with this strategy, though it remains unclear what counter-moves he may be quietly preparing to blunt the emerging political force taking shape. In 2007, he himself was part of the formidable team assembled by the late ODM leader Raila Odinga, famously branded the “Pentagon”.

At the time, the Pentagon brought together some of the country’s most influential political mobilisers to challenge the late President Mwai Kibaki, who had also benefited from a similar formation in 2002 when political heavyweights rallied behind him under the Narc coalition, helping him clinch the presidency.

Although Kibaki was eventually declared the winner in a disputed election that triggered post-election violence, the Pentagon strategy has continued to shape coalition politics in subsequent years. It is a script the current opposition appears keen to revisit in its bid to end Ruto’s hold on power.

In the build-up to the 2022 General Election, a similar arrangement led to the formation of the Azimio coalition, fronted by Raila and former President Uhuru Kenyatta, although it ultimately fell short at the ballot by about 200,000 votes to President Ruto.

Political analysts say the current push by the opposition to unite under a single coalition ahead of the 2027 General Election could greatly reshape Kenya’s political landscape and pile pressure on President Ruto, especially if the bloc agrees on one presidential candidate and a cohesive agenda.

As part of the strategy, the group is also keen to ensure its allied leaders secure elective seats in order to expand their influence and counter the UDA party’s control of the National Assembly, Senate and Council of Governors.

This strategy was evident at the burial of Teresia Onyonka, mother of Senator Richard Onyonka, in Gusii, which turned into a political platform for calls backing Onyonka’s bid to unseat Kisii Governor Simba Arati, as well as renewed momentum for the emerging coalition.

Opposition leaders used the occasion to court presidential hopeful David Maraga to join their ranks in efforts aimed at unseating President Ruto.

From the remarks made at the burial, the grouping is also reaching out to former ODM leader Raila’s daughter, Winnie Odinga, who has recently criticised the state of the economy.

Kalonzo expressed confidence that they would send the President home in 2027, urging unity among the leaders.

“It is clear that Ruto is going to be a one-term president, but we should understand that elections are a process,” he said.

He also challenged Maraga to engage with them as they build momentum against Ruto’s presidency.

Karua said the United Opposition was firmly united, assuring supporters that all principals would set aside personal ambitions in favour of a single candidate to carry the presidential flag.

“As the United Opposition principals, we will remain united to the end and work together to ensure one of us carries the flag against our main opponent,” Karua said.

 he, however, noted that she may still persuade her colleagues to back her bid, arguing that the country has yet to be led by a woman at the top leadership level.

Matiang’i also expressed confidence that the group would work together to front a single candidate to challenge President Ruto.

Sifuna, who also attended the funeral, said the coalition was committed to unity and coordination.

 “We want to make it easy to flush Ruto out of office. He doesn’t deserve an extra day in the high office,” he said.

 He urged the principals to set aside past differences and forge unity.

 “We shall need each other and we will need to reconcile at some point. I am ready to work with you. It is not about our individual differences, but a united team for a common goal,” he said.

 Kisumu Woman Rep Ruth Odinga urged supporters not to lose sight of the legacy of the late Raila, calling for ODM unity while also hinting at the possibility of working with other leaders.

 However, the opposition faces a steep path in its bid to unseat President Ruto, who continues with an aggressive mix of development tours, public pledges and visibility campaigns across the country.

 Barely a week passes without the President touring a region, unveiling projects, making promises and commissioning development initiatives aimed at strengthening his political base.

 For Ruto, the prevailing economic pressures, including rising fuel prices, have also become a key vulnerability, offering the opposition material for its campaign messaging.

 At the same time, divisions are emerging within his political camp, with some allies facing growing pressure from supporters over their association with the administration.

 In Kisii, Majority Whip Sylvanus Osoro was recently forced to distance himself from the President as he struggled to address mourners at the burial of Teresia Onyonka amid a charged political atmosphere.

 In Nyanza, allies within ODM’s “Linda Mwananchi” wing are also working to rally support for Ruto’s re-election, though some observers say they face an uphill task in a region still marked by political fatigue and the enduring shadow of Raila’s legacy.

 Similarly, in Western Kenya, the list of the President’s allies is thinning as political realignments gather pace, turning what was once a strong ODM support base into a contested battleground. The emerging political force led by Sifuna is seeking to take advantage of the shifting dynamics.

 In Nyanza, Siaya Governor James Orengo has taken an active role in countering grassroots mobilisation efforts by the President’s allies, holding several rallies across the region that have drawn sizeable crowds.

 The veteran politician, who has positioned himself as a key figure within ODM’s internal dynamics, has also pledged to support Kalonzo and Matiang’i in their political outreach in the region, expressing confidence that public sentiment is on their side.

 Weeks earlier, he led the Linda Mwananchi team in a major rally in Kisumu, where leaders rallied residents against President Ruto’s administration. Known for his long political experience and combative style, Orengo is among those driving the push for a unified opposition front.

 However, he faces stiff resistance from a parallel mobilisation effort led by Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo, who is spearheading efforts to popularise the President’s development agenda across the region.

 Meanwhile, Prof Charles Nyambuga argues that recent opinion polls indicate that a united opposition could numerically surpass President Ruto’s support if they rally behind one presidential candidate.

 “If we look at the last TIFA poll, then we could look at what Kalonzo got, which was 19 per cent, then what former DP Gachagua got, and what Sifuna got. If you combine that, then you see they will score much higher than President Ruto, who got 24 per cent,” he says.

 “So yes, it will make President Ruto sweat because it is assumed that we will have one candidate. If we have one opposition candidate among all these leaders, then the support base of each of them will move to that one particular candidate. And that will cause a lot of problems for President Ruto. Ruto should be very worried. UDA should be very worried.”

 

[Additional reporting by Stanley Ongwae and Rodgers Otiso]