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A political storm is brewing after embattled ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna drew a massive turnout in Kitengela, Kajiado County, despite claims by a rival faction that his position has already been filled.
On Sunday, Sifuna held his first rally since the ODM National Executive Council, chaired by party leader Oburu Oginga, announced his replacement over alleged ‘indiscipline’. The unexpectedly large crowd in Kitengela has fuelled speculation about an emerging political wave around him.
Observers are now questioning whether Sifuna is building a new political force with sustainable national appeal or simply capitalising on the current fallout within the party. Others wonder whether he can maintain the momentum.
Although police lobbed teargas, forcing the rally to end prematurely, Sifuna has pressed on, announcing that his next Linda Mwananchi tour will take place on Saturday in Kakamega Town.
Political analyst Barrack Muluka believes the developments signal the start of a broader political shift. “A revolution is well under way and anyone who underestimates it does so at their own peril. It is unstoppable,” he said.
He argued that the current tensions had been brewing for some time, describing the situation as a “tropical political thunderstorm”.
He added that the country has effectively entered campaign mode, with the incumbent already preparing for next year and Sifuna’s camp diving headfirst into the contest. “The energy sustaining them is not their own; it is the energy of the people. When people say, ‘I am Sifuna’ and ‘We are Sifuna’, how do you stop that? When the 2005 referendum wave began, it went all the way to 2007. This one, too, will not be stopped,” Muluka stated.
In a pointed metaphor, he said the “orange” was with Sifuna, while Oburu had been left with the “peels”.
Political scientist Richard Bosire said ODM had effectively told Sifuna to leave if he was dissatisfied with the party’s direction, but the Secretary General has insisted he is staying put.
Bosire noted that Winnie Odinga has publicly shown support for Sifuna, arguing that democracy demands tolerance of divergent views. “The manner in which Oburu was installed did not follow the Constitution, and that triggered protest. Even before attention shifted to Sifuna, there were questions about succession outside proper party structures,” he said.
He added that Ida Odinga had called for a ceasefire, signalling concern over a potential split if Sifuna were expelled.
According to Bosire, political parties often fracture when dissent is mishandled. “Disputes should be resolved within the Orange Democratic Party. Otherwise, the ‘D’ in ODM becomes meaningless,” he said, adding that if leaders cannot work with Sifuna, they should call for elections rather than force him out.
He described the Kitengela turnout as organic and reflective of broader public sentiment, contrasting it with rival rallies marked by coordinated displays of party colours. “The natural response sends shockwaves through the Oburu axis because it suggests Sifuna’s position resonates. Some members do not want a political marriage between ODM and Ruto. They want the party to remain independent, as one of the oldest and most popular parties in Kenya. Yet the Oburu side appears determined to pursue that alliance,” he said.
Another analyst, Dismas Mokua, said Kenya is firmly in campaign season, with political actors aligning and realigning to build capital ahead of the 2027 General Election.
He predicted unprecedented permutations in the political space as politicians gravitate towards special purpose vehicles capable of delivering electoral victory.
Mokua outlined several options available to Sifuna if he intends to consolidate his support. One would be to resign both as an ODM member and as Senator, thereby triggering a by-election. “He could then run under a different party or form a new one. Raila Odinga once resigned as a Ford Kenya member and Kibera MP, and that move created enormous political opportunity for him,” Mokua said.
Alternatively, Sifuna could seek to secure control at the ODM National Delegates Conference (NDC) alongside like-minded members and use the party’s infrastructure to influence national politics. “These options could provide a sustainable national appeal and translate into real political capital for 2027. To maintain momentum, Sifuna must control both the political tool and the political structure,” Mokua argued.
He warned that failure to pursue either route could weaken Sifuna’s trajectory, as he would lack control over a national political machine ahead of the elections.
Mokua noted that Raila was able to hold ODM together for years largely because he wielded the authority to reward loyalty and sanction dissent.
“This is one of the most viable paths to converting national excitement into political capital. Sifuna must avoid rookie mistakes and conduct careful scenario analysis, because his peers and seniors are waiting to capitalise on any misstep,” he said.
As the ODM wrangles intensify, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro weighed in, criticising what he termed outdated methods of managing political dissent. “We are seeing teargas thrown at innocent Kenyans during gatherings. Do what you must, but the trend being set will boomerang,” he said.
