How Odinga dynasty war is shattering ODM

 

Former prime minister Raila Odinga's final send-off. [File, Standard]

The family of the late ODM leader Raila Odinga is facing the prospect of an implosion as sharp divisions on succession politics in ODM and the political direction of the party create a sharp crack in ideology in one of the country’s most formidable political families.

Raila’s kin are deeply conflicted and are pulling in different directions as controversies that have hit the political behemoth that Raila built over two decades spill into the family.

As the squabbles in ODM continue to intensify, the differences in opinion among Raila’s kin are becoming more glaring.

In the background, some observers believe President William Ruto’s relentless push for a political deal with the family is also fanning the embers.

At the apex is party leader and the family’s spokesperson, Oburu Oginga, who is running the clock to push ODM into a political deal with President Ruto’s UDA party. However, his leadership has come under sharp focus as members of his family openly pull in a different direction.

Political allies

Backed by a platoon of political allies in ODM and UDA supporting the proposed deal, Oburu is marching on to State House in pursuit of power, leading one side of the family as the other choruses with questions and criticisms.

Observers believe the divisions, which are playing out in public, are further complicating the future of ODM and increasing the possibility of the party fragmenting. They believe the family risks plunging into a point of no return if they mishandle the Raila succession.

Communication consultant Barrack Muluka opines that Oburu and his sons have set their eyes on the prize.

“Oburu and his sons have seen the feast on the table and are heartily partaking. They no longer belong to the spirit or the heritage of Raila’s ‘Canaan Nation’ legacy.”

A day after the Oburu-led faction kicked out Secretary General Edwin Sifuna from his position in the party before he was reinstated by the Political Parties Tribunal, Raila’s kin, among them his daughter Winnie, expressed displeasure over the turn of events, signalling the tough task that awaits Oburu in his quest to rally the entire family to join the Ruto train.

Winnie believes Oburu is leading the party in the wrong direction. In an explosive rant after Sifuna’s predicament, Winnie described the fight in ODM as the fight for the soul of the party.

She recounted the times her father changed his mind for the sake of the ODM party, including the controversial 2018 swearing-in as the People’s President.

About two weeks ago, what had been anticipated to be a family reunion on February 2, which saw Oburu convene a meeting in a bid to restore order in the family, now feels like a distant memory.

Sources close to the family told the Saturday Standard some family members have lost faith in the direction the ODM party is taking and are fearing for the future of the party. They believe the legacy Raila built through ODM is at stake.

Dignity

Others, however, have welcomed the push to work with the President and claim the government has treated the family with dignity.

Oburu and his two sons, Jaoko and Elijah, are pushing for a political deal with President Ruto. In this bid, the group has openly clashed with Winnie and Raila Jnr.

For instance, while Jaoko has openly embraced political operative Oketch Salah and has been moving around with him in ODM-themed campaign events, Salah’s role in ODM has been openly questioned by others.

Unlike the past, when he was low-key, Jaoko, a political novice, has come out reciting songs, telling tales of Raila’s struggles and pushing through the narrative of the UDA-ODM coalition.

However, his last public rally with Salah, where they had mobilised university students, ended in chaos as attendees demanded handouts.

Interestingly, in that meeting, ODM shirts worn by attendees had the portraits of Ruto, which forced the party leadership to distance itself from Salah’s activities.

Within the family, Ruth Odinga, a member of the National Executive Council that kicked out Sifuna, appears inclined to the faction against a pre-election deal with Ruto.

According to Ruth, the talks with UDA are premature, and she believes the party should instead focus on strengthening its grassroots support before beginning any talks.

Her views resonate with those of Winnie and her brother Raila Junior.

Yesterday, in apparent support of Sifuna, Junior posted a cryptic message on his X page, claiming that the finest steel must go through the hottest fire.

Still, there is Raila’s widow, Ida Odinga, who has embraced a nomination by President Ruto as Kenya’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations Environment Programme, a move some perceive as political bribery but which was dismissed by Ida as an honour.

Political commentator Chris Owala argues that Ida’s nomination is an indirect purchase of ODM by the President.

“What we are witnessing is a wholesale purchase of ODM. She does not need the job, and accepting it means she will not have any moral authority to comment on anything political,” he says.

Winnie Mandela

Owala believes that Ida is in the same league as South Africa’s Winnie Mandela and Mama Ngina Kenyatta and should not be reduced to a government employee who has to look back every time and cannot comment on issues freely.

Some observers believe the President stands to benefit more from a fragmented ODM and that this presents his UDA party with an upper hand in any pre-election pact. By scattering internal unity, they believe the party is being systematically weakened, a situation bound to worsen with the possibility that the Sifuna-led group could craft a parallel line-up in the party.

For a man who promised not to let ODM collapse, a section of leaders within the party claim that the President is pulling strings to scatter the members.

On Thursday, a section of ODM leaders, considered rebels, including Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, claimed that the party is now being run from State House and that all the key decisions are influenced by external forces.

Party finances

But it is not only them. Other sources within the party claim that he is funding the Linda Ground rallies that Oburu and his team are undertaking across the country and was a key proponent of the removal of Sifuna from the heart of the party as well as the recent leadership changes within the party.

Ruto’s allies are also involved in helping ODM with the mobilisation of attendees and paying for their handouts. For instance, during the recent party rallies in Kisumu and Kakamega, The Standard established that attendees were paid between Sh500 and Sh1,000.

Ruth has also been critical of the financing of the party’s activities and has alleged that she is unaware of the source of money that has been circulating within the party.

“The money flying in choppers, being used to procure big tents and to mobilise and brand crowds in ODM colours, yet the same money cannot be sent to ODM accounts means one thing: control,” said Ruth in a post.

“Some analysts believe these developments are not accidental but politically orchestrated. Senator Sifuna himself raised concerns about funding behind certain activities associated with Oburu Odinga’s side of the party, and that adds weight to the suspicion that outside forces may be shaping internal outcomes,” says Muluka.

He believes the conflicts are strengthening UDA and ultimately reducing ODM’s negotiation power.

“As ODM’s internal conflicts continue, its strength in negotiations with UDA is steadily diminishing. Its bargaining power is directly tied to its unity, structures, and clarity of purpose, all of which are currently under strain,” he says.

Communication researcher and political communication expert Charles Nyambuga contends that a weak ODM empowers Ruto and his negotiation team.

“Now, it is a battle between Winnie and the sons of Oburu. What is the endgame? The endgame will be determined by the person who dominates. That dominant figure will be the one to take over the Odinga legacy and lead that political category into the future,” says Prof Nyambuga.

Through this, the Oburu-led faction is going into discussions with a smaller, less unified internal audience than before. Compared to previous political cycles, the party’s negotiation bloc is now visibly reduced in strength and coherence.