From Moses to Joshua: ODM's journey to 'Caanan' after Raila

 Funeral service for the late former Prime Minister and ODM leader Raila Odinga.

There is something almost biblical about Kenyan politics. We speak in metaphors without noticing it. We talk about liberation, about journeys like the current one to Singapore, about crossing rivers and entering “Canaan.” For decades, one man carried that promise on his shoulders: Raila Odinga.

Raila framed his mission as a march toward a just and democratic Kenya. He endured detention, exile, betrayal, defeat and reinvention. Like Moses before Pharaoh, he confronted authority and demanded space for his people. His supporters saw him as a liberator who expanded democratic space and gave voice to the marginalised.

In the Book of Exodus, Moses leads the Israelites out of slavery, guides them through the wilderness and shapes them into a nation. Yet he does not enter the Promised Land. That task falls to Joshua, with Caleb as his ally. Leadership passes to a new generation, not to erase Moses, but to complete the journey.

That ancient transition offers a useful lens for ODM and its supporters today. Raila’s passing on October 15, 2025, left a vacuum within the Orange Democratic Movement as the country looks toward 2027. In the immediate aftermath, the party appointed Oburu Oginga as Acting Party Leader, pending endorsement by the National Delegates Conference, to steady it through a delicate moment.

The transition has been turbulent. At the centre is the question of whether ODM should back President William Ruto for a second term or chart its own course. Even before his death, Raila had sent mixed signals, at times insisting the party would field its own candidate.

Two currents have since formed. One, aligned with Oginga, is open to working with the ruling administration and has publicly signalled support for Ruto’s 2027 bid. Its argument is pragmatic: ODM cannot remain permanently in opposition or tied to street politics long after the era in which it was forged.

The other is a progressive wing led by Nairobi Senator and ODM Secretary General (SG) Edwin Sifuna. This group insists the party must reclaim its oppositional identity and defend the ideals Raila espoused: Reform, accountability and people-centred representation.

The divide is not merely personal. It cuts across ideology, class, alliances, ethnicity, region and generation. Raila’s project was never simply about regime change or accommodation with power. At its core, it spoke to constitutionalism, economic inclusion and democratic deepening. With his death, that vision did not seamlessly pass to a successor. It has become contested ground, claimed, reinterpreted and reshaped by competing factions within the party.

In the biblical account, Moses led the Israelites for 40 years but did not enter Canaan. Near the end, at Meribah, he struck the rock in frustration instead of speaking to it as instructed. Though water flowed, he was told he would only see the promised land from Mount Nebo, not step into it. The mission continued, but under new leadership

For many young Kenyans, Raila’s 2024 decision to work with Ruto felt like a Meribah moment. After years of resistance politics, cooperation with the establishment unsettled a generation that had seen him as the enduring symbol of defiance. The struggle was not erased, but the emotional contract shifted.

Like Moses on Nebo, Raila had carried the promise for decades. Yet for restless youths, the final stretch toward their imagined Canaan began to look as though it would require different energy and steadier hands. That is the space in which Sifuna and others have positioned themselves.

Sifuna’s rise has been methodical. As long-serving SG, he has been ODM’s chief communicator and legal defender, more precise than theatrical, grounded in statute and constitutional argument. In a climate of shifting alliances, he has drawn a firm line against what critics call the broad-based arrangement with the Ruto administration, framing his stance around institutional integrity and ideology.

During the Gen Z-led protests of June 2024 and renewed civic agitation in 2025, many seasoned politicians hesitated. Sifuna did not. He defended the youth and their right to protest, challenged State overreach and became a bridge between institutional politics and youth activism. Failed attempts to push him out of the SG position last week only strengthened and endeared his standing among anti-Ruto supporters.

But it would be premature to anoint anyone as Raila’s successor barely four months after his death. His mystic political shadow still looms large, as if the search is on for the right Joshua.

Anyang' Nyong'o hinted at this when reflecting on Sifuna’s trajectory. In early 2025, when Raila sought the chairmanship of the African Union Commission and Prof Nyong’o briefly served as interim party leader, he remarked that Sifuna was “meant for the future.” It sounded casual then. In the current moment of transition, those words feel unmistakably prophetic.

If Sifuna mirrors Joshua in discipline and institutional focus, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino plays a role closer to Caleb. Bold and rooted in youth politics, he speaks directly to unemployment, student struggles and economic frustration. His resilience through legal and political storms has hardened his appeal among young voters.

Together, Sifuna and Babu represent two strands of a possible post-Raila ODM: Constitutional steadiness and insurgent energy. Other younger leaders such as Winnie Odinga and Caleb Amisi are also asserting generational change, speaking more about unemployment, debt and digital rights than the battles of the 1990s.

Still, the party risks fracture if the transition is mishandled. ODM’s identity was long tied to Raila’s persona. Without that gravitational pull, cohesion is not guaranteed.

The question now is not whether Sifuna and Babu wish to inherit Raila’s mantle. It is whether they can convert symbolism into strategy and lead supporters who are not only stranded but have also endured decades of political wilderness into the symbolic Canaan.

Joshua did not replicate Moses. He shifted from wandering in the desert to consolidation. In Kenyan terms, that would mean moving from perpetual protest to a credible alternative government in waiting. It requires coalition building, economic clarity and a national message that reaches beyond loyalists.

Charisma and eloquence will not be enough. The crowds seen in Kitengela and Busia do not amount to policy. Criticising Ruto is easier than presenting a workable economic model and governance alternative. A serious third force must define itself on its own terms.