Letter from Mogadishu: Relations with regional states sour, South West State rebels

I want to invite you for a moment to visualise the governor of Mombasa or Kisumu calling off the cordial relations that exist with the national government and banning national government officers within their jurisdiction from travelling to Nairobi or having contact with their bosses in the capital city. That is what one of the Federal Member States in Somalia has done this past week. South West State suspended cooperation with Somalia's Federal Government (FGS), escalating an already fragile relationship and signaling deepening divisions within the country's federal system. Unfortunately, South West State, with its capital in Baidoa, is not the first state to rebel against Mogadishu since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected in 2022. Jubaland, with which Kenya shares a border along the Garissa and Mandera counties, was the first to rebel against Mohamud's leadership. Recently, it has been supported by Puntland, whose president ran against the Somali president but lost in the second round. The two federal state presidents have been a thorn in the flesh of Mohamud, using any opportunity to throw barbs at him or to outrightly defy any decision he takes. The two regional presidents have joined hands with the opposition leaders to mobilize against any decision taken by Mogadishu in the stand-off over the election process and model. Last week president Mohamud pulled a fast one on the opposition leaders when he signed into law the provisional constitution, which has been in use since 2012, after the joint sitting of the two chambers of parliament approved it with amendments. The signing of what is now Somalia's new constitution seems to have scuttled the opposition and pushed parliamentary and presidential elections to next year. While the opposition insists that the term for MPs expires next month, while that of the president is in May, the new constitution has deferred this to next year. The new documents change the term of parliament and the president from four years to five years. Whether this contributed to the decision by the South West State to sever its cooperation with Mogadishu remains to be seen. But in making its announcement, the state's official spokesperson accused the federal authorities of undermining federalism and interfering in the internal affairs of the regional administration led by President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed "Laftagareen." The state averred that if the federal system is not respected, then its purpose is in question, with the spokesperson warning that Somalia cannot function when the system meant to unite it is disregarded. The state was categorical that it would not continue cooperation under conditions that undermine its authority and the federal arrangement. While the South West State was not candid about its reasons for withdrawal of cooperation with the government of Mohamud, this move was left to speculation and conjecture. Suffice to say, the decision by President Mohamud to extend his mandate and that of parliament by a year seems to have rubbed the state the wrong way and thus pushed it to join the other rebellious states of Jubaland and Puntland. Earlier, the State had imposed travel restrictions on government officials and security personnel in Baidoa. In a directive issued this week on Monday by the Ministry of Internal Security, officials and members of the security forces were barred from leaving the city without prior authorization. Villa Somalia was very cautious in the manner in which it handled the withdrawal of cooperation by the South West State. It called for restraint while it moved swiftly to close the airspace in Baidoa for any plane landing or taking off, save for United Nations-operated flights. The move by the South West State now puts it in the same corner with Jubaland and Puntland, both of which have previously cut or suspended ties with the Federal Government over disputes related to governance, constitutional authority, and power-sharing. Security experts warn that political upheavals could weaken coordination between federal and regional forces, potentially creating vulnerabilities that militant groups may exploit. The unrest has raised concerns about stability as Baidoa is central to operations against Al-Shabaab. To be fair to the administration of the state, tensions between the South West State and the federal government have persisted for years, often foisted by disagreements over political control, security management, and the limits of federal authority. The state's leadership under President Laftagareen has previously taken firm positions in disputes with Mogadishu, reflecting broader national disagreements over the balance of power between the centre and federal member states. How Mogadishu will navigate this situation will determine whether Baidoa remains an ally or it will join the rebellious Jubaland and Puntland. Meanwhile, the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) is now a full house following the swearing-in of the nine legislators from Somalia. The new EALA MPs were sworn in after the heads of state summit in Arusha on March 14, during which Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni assumed the chairmanship position from his Kenyan counterpart, William Ruto. The nine took their oath of office after months of wrangles, which ended up at the regional bloc's court despite their nomination having been approved late last year. The swearing in of the new EALA members comes amid a financial crunch facing the regional bloc due to its members' defaulting on meeting their annual subscriptions. As of January 31, 2026, the East African Community owed $90 million, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo leading the list of defaulters at $27 million. It was closely followed by Burundi ($23 million), South Sudan ($23 million), and Somalia ($10 million). The defaulting nations have posed challenges to the regional Assembly, forcing it to conduct its sessions online since last year. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signs the new constitution into law on March 8, 2026 in Mogadishu. [Courtesy, Villa Somalia, X]

Letter from Mogadishu: Relations with regional states sour, South West State rebels

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