Will Ruto The Fifth be any different from other Kenya presidents?

Ruto on the campaign trail: That was the easy bit. [File, Standard] One of the things that have persistently undermined Project Kenya is tribal suspicion. This vice started rearing its ugly head immediately after independence in 1963 when most of the plum and influential jobs in the Civil Service and State Corporations were doled out to President Jomo Kenyatta's tribesmen and cronies, and with these, a lot of state resources were channelled to the Central Kenya region using the development model that was created by the Sessional Paper Number 10 of 1965. This paper, dubbed African Socialism and its Application to Planning advocated, inter alia, that regions with high potential would be supported through investments to lead in development so that returns from such investments would be used to spur development in other regions. Using this model, investments were made by the state in high-potential agricultural areas, mainly in the former "White Highlands." Unfortunately, there's no evidence to support the use of investment returns from these areas to initiate https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001452624/i-will-uphold-the-constitution-ruto-says as had been envisaged in the document. Add that to the region's proximity to Nairobi and the physical infrastructure that was laid by the British in the White Highlands, and the picture gets clearer. Six decades later, the disparity in wealth accumulated between the so-called Mount Kenya region and other parts of the country is so huge that one wonders if they are parts of the same country. It doesn't take a lot of economic thinking to understand that institutions create miniature economies around them, which benefit economic agents that regularly interact with them. Economists call it the multiplier effect of economic decisions. Several decades later, the smaller economies that were created around institutions in the first few years after independence have now created formidable backward and forward linkages that have themselves snowballed into a solid economy of the Mount Kenya region that the rest of the country can only admire. Kenya's first President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta. [File, Standard] Some people have argued that the mind-boggling wealth that is currently sitting in the hands of sons and daughters of the Mount Kenya region is purely attributable to their business acumen and ingenuity. Well, everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But on this particular one, the facts and figures prove otherwise. This single act of favouring one region at the expense of others has caused so much inter-tribal suspicion in the country that unless we boldly confront and deal with it, our aspirations for achieving a balanced and cohesive society will remain a mere pipe dream. President Ruto comes to the stage with so much promise, enthusiasm and political strength, which he can leverage to transform Kenya into a society where every citizen feels comfortable. One thing that the President achieved during his campaigns was to galvanize the youth across the country based on his bottom-up economic model. For the third time since independence in 1963, Kenyans witnessed issue-based campaigns. Whether or not the model can withstand intellectual and technical scrutiny is a different matter. The relevant issue here is the fact that there was a message, and the message resonated with the youth across the country, and they embraced it. The first time in our political history that Kenyans had a compelling message was in 1963 when our independence heroes and heroines galvanised the nation around the prospect of liberation from the colonial yoke. Uhuru Kenyatta hands over power to William Ruto. [File Standard] The second time a political message captured the imagination of Kenyans was in 1992 when the Young Turks that included Raila Odinga, Paul Muite, James Orengo, Gitobu Imanyara, Mukhisa Kituyi, Wamalwa Kijana, Rashid Mzee, Joe Ager, and others traversed the country with the promise of removing the KANU dictatorship and introducing a more open society where every Kenyan enjoyed the freedom of speech and association that the ruling party had denied them for decades. And now, Ruto is here with the bottom-up message. It's instructive that every time Kenyans have voted based on a meaningful message, the result has always been a huge disappointment as politicians renege on their promises of an inclusive society. That history of broken promises should give President Ruto enough sleepless nights as he thinks of better strategies to help him deliver to the expectations of Kenyans. For decades, Kenya has been tinkering precariously on the verge of being declared a dysfunctional society on account of a lack of inter-ethnic cohesion. The evidence of this tinkering is the perennial Balkanisation of the country based on tribes each time we head to the presidential polls. The question then is: how did we get here? In the run-up to independence, Kenyans coalesced around two main political formations, KANU and KADU. The Hustler nation expects Ruto to deliver on his promises; nothing less. [Standard, File] The former, which preferred a unitary state, brought together the big tribes, mainly the Kikuyu and the Luo. The latter was a coalition of smaller tribes that feared the dominance of the Big Two. It favoured a federal state, referred to in Kiswahili as "Majimbo." This latter group had the Luhya, Kalenjin and Miji Kenda as the main tribes. KANU formed the government in 1963 under Mzee Kenyatta as the Prime Minister. One year later, there were two milestones. First, Kenya became a Republic with Mzee as the President and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga as the Vice President. Second, KADU under Ronald Ngala dissolved itself and joined KANU, marking the beginning of Kenya as a de facto one-party state. The key figures in KADU, namely Ronald Ngala, Daniel Moi and Masinde Muliro were invited into the KANU government as Cabinet Ministers. Kenyatta's plan was to consolidate power by eliminating competition. Once everyone was in KANU with Mzee as the head of state and government, it was now easy to clip the wings of popular individuals who were perceived as threats to his rule. It didn't take long before the real Kenyatta emerged from the pretentious nationalist who Jaramogi had presented to Kenyans as the "second god." The "Kiambu Mafia" quickly took form under James Gichuru, Mbiyu Koinange, Charles Njonjo and Dr Njoroge Mungai. The group was determined to keep power within Kiambu, Kenyatta's home district. Unsurprisingly, all the popular nationalists were either removed from their positions in government or assassinated. In 1966, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was the first casualty among the influential Kenyans whose political wings were clipped. He suffered detention and expulsion from KANU, notwithstanding the historical fact that he shelved his presidential ambition and campaigned for the then-detained Kenyatta to be released to lead the nation as the first President. Then followed the second Vice President Joe Murumbi who left the number two slot in unclear circumstances within a few months of his appointment to the office. Joe was a principled intellectual who couldn't survive the machinations of the Kiambu Mafia. He left in a huff. Moi was appointed VP the same year in 1966. Then, assassinations (or deaths in suspicious circumstances) of popular nationalists followed in quick succession. Pio Gama Pinto, CMG Argwings Kodhek, TJ Mboya, JM Kariuki and others died within a decade or so after independence. The older Kenyatta got, the faster the elimination of prominent politicians occurred to pave the way for Kiambu Mafia. Unfortunately for the Kiambu Mafia, Kenyatta's death came earlier than expected before they could remove Moi from the number two slot. Attorney General Charles Mugane Njonjo had strategically refused to facilitate the change to the constitutional provision that allowed the VP automatic ascendancy to the presidency in case the office fell vacant. Njonjo himself had underrated Moi, and in fact, planned to remove him from the seat shortly after his inauguration. He thought Moi was a "passing cloud" who lacked the requisite sophistication to competently run the affairs of a modern state. Unknown to Njonjo, the "passing cloud" had all along known what he was planning and put in place counter strategies. The passing cloud would remain in the skies for 24 years, to the chagrin of Njonjo and the Kiambu Mafia. Moi's clarion call upon assuming the presidency was "Fuata Nyayo" (follow my footsteps). If anybody thought Moi was joking, the reality would soon send shivers down their spines. The "Kiambu Mafia", starting with Njonjo, was systematically dismantled and replaced with the "Kalenjin Mafia". Within four short years, there was opposition to Moi's rule. The country woke up to a coup d'etat on August 1, 1982. The failed coup attempt gave Moi the much-needed opportunity to crack down on dissidents and rule with an iron fist. Fast forward, there was the "Second Liberation" that restored multiparty democracy in Kenya. In a nutshell, we have not fared very well in terms of inter-ethnic relations. That's why six decades into political independence, it's still very easy to cobble up ethnic coalitions in a bid to fight imaginary ethnic enemies. This is not sustainable. We need to move forward as one nation with well-defined goals, objective interests and aspirations. That brings me to the unique position that President William Ruto finds himself in at this juncture. President Ruto finds himself in a position similar to what midwives typically find themselves in ever too often. In this position, the mother of the child is helpless and leaves her fate and that of her unborn child in the hands of the midwife. But first, let's try to understand how precarious President Ruto's position is. There are at least five distinct groups with competing stakes in the Ruto presidency. First, are those who supported the Kenya Kwanza coalition and its presidential candidate. They have a legitimate expectation that the president will give them priority over those who didn't support his bid. This category of stakeholders happens to represent their regions - read ethnic groups - within the coalition. The regions are keenly watching to see whether their support will amount to something in terms of appointments to plum government positions and skewed resource allocation in their favour. Nothing captures this expectation better than what Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is reported to have said while addressing the people of Bungoma. "We will give priority to those who supported Kenya Kwanza, and only if something remains shall we think of the latecomers; that's why we have made Wetangula the speaker of the National Assembly," said the DP. The second category comprises the Kalenjin who still hold onto fond memories of the Moi days and the goodies they enjoyed. Now that another Kalenjin is at the helm, nothing stops them from expecting something similar, if not more favours. In any case, as they say, charity begins at home. The third category comprises the youth of Mount Kenya region who bought into the bottom-Up model with the hope of receiving reparations from the scions of the colonial-era elite who acquired their kin's land after independence while those who fought for it in the forests got a pittance. This group is particularly restless, and may not be patient for a long time if the government cannot deliver on its promises to them. The fourth group comprises the rest of the Kenyans who listened to Ruto as he explained his strategies for transforming the country, and especially his promise that it will not be business as usual. They are keenly waiting to see any signs of fundamental change that Ruto promised them. Last but not least is the Azimio coalition which was Ruto's worthy competitor during the just concluded presidential polls. The coalition will be trying to demonstrate to Kenyans that they made a mistake by believing that the Kenya Kwanza group was an embodiment of their hopes, objective interests and aspirations. In this respect, the Azimio team will burn the midnight oil to put the ruling coalition under strict surveillance to demonstrate that all those promises that Ruto made to the would-be voters were hot air. All these groups gave William Ruto the benefit of the doubt, and for once, believed that things were going to change for the better. Ruto himself emphasised that he was going to hit the ground running. The reality is that revitalising an economy is not like fixing instant coffee. The economy is affected by both domestic realities and global dynamics. For example, there must be a productive economy that creates goods, services and jobs for taxes to be collected to underwrite the cost of political promises. At the same time, the global economic situation, like the war in Ukraine, directly affects the ability of the domestic economy to deliver services to the citizens. President Ruto has the most unenviable task of working around all these expectations to pacify the various constituencies. If he fails to deliver on his promises, he can be sure that 2027 is going to be huge trouble for him. At the same time, if he falls into the trap of favouring his supporters at the expense of the rest of the Kenyan taxpayers, he will not have made the much-anticipated departure from the political bad manners of his predecessors. President Ruto has to take calculated political steps to create a cohesive society. A cohesive Kenya is a baby which President Ruto is expected to midwife. Society is full of expectations that the baby will not only come out but will do so alive. The worst thing that can ever happen to President Ruto is to cause the death of the baby through careless midwifery. It is indeed, a delicate task. Fortunately, he understood the inherent hurdles in the job he was asking for, weighed them, and determined that he was up to the task. As he juggles the numerous stakeholders' interests, he must ensure that no community feels left out or discriminated against based on the divergence of political opinion. May the Almighty God give our President the graces and strength to accomplish the task that he has placed in his hands. We wish him all the best in his new job as the CEO of Kenya Incorporated. - Dr Ongore is a lecturer at TUK

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