Law of unrelated things at play in political events

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In the controversial 2005 book, Freakonomics, the authors explore the ‘law of unrelated things.’ This is the phenomenon where seemingly unrelated things somehow appear to have a connection. For example ice-cream sales and murder rates in New York were directly proportional to each other. When one went up, so did the other.  But upon further reading, one discovers that the relationship between these things does not necessarily translate to causality - the idea that one factor caused the other to happen. They are only related because they have something in common. When it comes to the ice-cream sales and the increased murder rate - what they have in common is the warm weather. Research showed that in the summer, more people spent time outdoors and being out and about increased incidences of crime. In warm weather, more people naturally bought ice-cream.

This is how political events must be examined. If the events are not directly related, such that one event is causing the other to happen, then it means they just have something in common. The law of unrelated things applies. The events must therefore have a ‘lowest common denominator’. If they do, then we can make interpretations of intentions, and make predictions of the political player’s coming actions.