Oburu doomed by a tsunami of voter apathy

ODM leaders during former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's memorial service at Sony Sugar Green Stadium in Awenso Sub-County, Migori County on November 6, 2025. [Anne Atieno] In one classic hit, rhumba musician Musa Juma bemoaned Kenya's electoral crises and hoped that Raila Odinga would one day fix them. Two decades later, the song still echoes with truth that our polls are painfully predictable. And with Mr Odinga's death, that sense of despair has only grown. Few days ago, one patriot called Joseph Ochelle posted a photo of the late ODM leader online and captioned it: "Baba, tell me why I should ever vote again." The comments that followed were charged with emotion. Mr Ochelle is among voters grappling with the fact that the future they once believed in has vanished with Mr Odinga's passing. For the first time in 20 years, the ballot will roll without the enigma's name, only the echo of darkness. In the wake of this loss, I predict unprecedented voter apathy in ODM strongholds in 2027. Kenya Kwanza 'hero' Wafula Chebukati told us that Mr Odinga got 6,942,930 votes in 2022, which was 48.85 per cent of the national tally. But in the cold dawn after the Agwambo's death, even marshaling two million votes from his Nyanza, Coast, Western and Northern bedrock will take divine intervention. Worse still, the ongoing IEBC voter listing isn't inspiring. Even if ODM sticks with UDA, which I hope it will, it must convince supporters to vote. Otherwise, it won't add value to President William Ruto's cause. Granted, ODM can't form government, or be part of it, if its strongholds stay home. That challenge is not lost on the leadership. Speaking in Homa Bay on Wednesday, interim party leader Oburu Oginga urged locals to register as voters. But how do you inspire people like Mr Ochelle to vote when ODM is already showing clear signs of split through what you would call verbal diarrhoea? Dr Oburu has also said that ODM is keen on the deputy president slot in whichever formation. But what will the Number Two seat benefit the party if it doesn't occupy plum slots like the ones it currently enjoys in the broad-based administration? Post-Odinga, Dr Oburu must not shy away. If he wants to revitalise the party, he must summon the same steely resolve that made him tell rebels to 'stop vomiting on us.' Sparing the rod will spoil the child. As a democracy, we must address the effects of emotions on voting at all costs. But also, Dr Oburu must remember he's not Mr Odinga. There is no cloning Baba. The best he can do is to prioritise good governance, transparency, and a new party script that respects members' rights, with a clear ideology. Parties without ideology are empty debes. In 2007, Party of National Unity (PNU) was merely a special-purpose vehicle for Mwai Kibaki. A decade later, Jubilee Party was hastily crafted for Uhuru Kenyatta's re-election, under the promise of uniting the nation by collapsing multiple outfits. They all came a cropper. For the record, parties should organise, campaign and guide citizens toward informed choices. Instead, most of our 160 registered outfits are empty vessels that survive on tribalism, greed and short-term ambition. ODM is no exception. By the way, when people say that 'ODM was Mr Odinga, and he was the party,' they aren't exaggerating. Jakom's death has jolted the outfit. Those who pulled 'tricks' to secure tickets are doomed. Even the memorials being held across the counties will not appease Mr Odinga's supporters. Methinks the Orange party has a fresh chance to commit to integrity and bold reforms beyond fielding candidates. Any missteps will see Baba's supporters drift further in search of closure that the party can't offer. Perhaps it's worth asking at this point, why are veterans like Governors Anyang' Nyong'o of Kisumu and Siaya's James Orengo laid back as ODM faces turbulence? Is someone gagging? Their silence only amplifies the noise from Gladys Wanga and Edwin Sifuna. A party chairperson should, ordinarily, be measured in their conduct. It's common sense that in moments like these, silence is more strategic than empty talk. ODM scalawags must not 'vomit' on grieving voters. They will not believe the extent of the apathy 'tsunami' in 2027. -The writer is a communications practitioner.

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