Broke Kenyans return to work as ground shifts on Covid-19

Gikomba Market, the largest open-air market for second-hand clothes in the region, appears like it is untouched by Covid-19 pandemic. 
 
Although almost everyone has a face-mask, with most of them strapped around the chin rather than covering the nose and mouth, people brush shoulders without giving much thought to the risk they are exposing themselves to.
 
A trader, who introduces himself only as Oduor, says things were bad in the first days, but they have started going back to normal.  
 
Shoppers have started streaming back. “The only problem now is that there is no new stock coming in,” says Oduor.
 
It is not only Gikomba Market where things are slowly going back to normal; many Kenyans have started going back to their workplaces, much to the chagrin of the Health Ministry officials.
 
“Please, don’t go back to work. Continue working from home. Nowadays, traffic is here, which means people are back at work,” said Cabinet Secretary  Mutahi Kagwe at a recent press briefing.
 
But his exhortation seems to have fallen on deaf ears, with a new wave of infections spreading in Nairobi’s business hubs such as Eastleigh, which has since been put under lockdown. 
 
Movement of people into four counties - Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale and Kilifi - has also been restricted. There is also a dusk-to-dawn curfew that limits working hours.
 
Yesterday, a public holiday in which Muslims marked the end of Ramadhan, Nairobi’s Central Business District was a beehive of activities.
 
Scholastica Odhiambo, an economics lecturer at Maseno University, says it is a matter of survival. “Most households in vibaruas (casual jobs) lost jobs, and some are trying their hand at small businesses,” says Odhiambo.
 
She adds that the fear and shock that many Kenyans had about the disease has normalised, resulting in lockdown fatigue that is sweeping across the continent. Instead, people are now in wait-and-see mode. “Wait-and-see mode works whereby if someone near them could be sick from Covid-19, then they go back to safety mode,” added Odhiambo.
 
President Uhuru Kenyatta on Saturday hinted at partially reopening the economy.
 
“We will not continue with the lockdown and the curfew. I have told health officials and my ministers that they should start telling Kenyans we cannot be under a curfew or lockdown forever,” said Kenyatta even as he urged Kenyans to maintain personal discipline.
 
The stock market has also normalised, though trading is yet to return to pre-Covid-19 levels.
 
Last week, all the indices at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), increased.
 
NASI,  NSE  25  and NSE 20 share price indices increased by 3.3 per cent, 2.5 per cent and  1.7 per cent respectively during the week ending  May 21. 
 
“Similarly, market capitalisation increased by 3.3 per cent,” said Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) in its weekly bulletin.
 
However, equity turnover and the number of shares traded declined by 11.3 per cent and 22.3 per cent respectively.
 
The domestic bond market also experienced uplift, with the turnover of bonds traded in the domestic secondary market increasing by  2.4 per cent during the week.
 
In the international market, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds decreased by an average of  151.6  basis points, indicating lower risk for Kenya in case it goes back to the market to issue another Eurobond. Since Kenya announced its first case of the disease on March 13, the shilling has considerably lost ground against the dollar, at one point hitting a record low of 107.
 
However, the local currency has since stabilised and has not been as volatile as it was before.
 
Tourism CS Najib Balala said last week the government is looking for ways to resume economic activity gradually, with the government and airlines holding talks to establish guidelines under which domestic and international flights through the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) will resume.
 
The government has allowed hotels to reopen but after meeting stringent conditions, including testing all their workers for Covid-19.
 
They should also ensure that clients are sequestered and observe strict hygienic conditions.
 
Nelson Gitonga, a health economist, says unless a country has strong safety nets, they can’t keep people at home for long.
 
“It reaches a point where you have to balance between the risk of infections vis-à-vis people dying of hunger and also social upheaval,” says Gitonga. He reckons that while restrictions of movement of people have eased off, with people being screened at borders, curfews should not be lifted. Pubs, schools and public service should also remain closed, says Gitonga.
 
“The only thing people are not talking about is who will pay for these changes,” wonders Gitonga about the social distance rules that have seen the cost of certain services such as transport more than double, according to a survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
 
The new survey by the national statistician, which sought to find out the effects of the outbreak on health, labour, transport, housing, also found that a third of households had trouble paying their rent on time.
 
The results show that at least 21.5 per cent of the households in Kenya who usually pay rent on the dates agreed with landlords were unable to pay rent for the month of April, with most blaming reduced income.
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