Parliament watchdog pokes holes into Ruto's unrealistic budget math

Treasury CS John Mbadi during the 2025 Budget reading, on June 12, 2025. The budget watchdog has raised concerns over the Treasury’s revenue forecast of Sh3.4 trillion for the 2025/26 fiscal year. [File, Standard]

The Kenya Kwanza administration’s fiscal outlook for the coming year faces significant risks from what the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) terms as “overly optimistic” revenue targets, an increased dependence on domestic borrowing that could squeeze private sector credit, and persistent growth in mandatory spending.

In its latest Budget Watch report, the independent PBO, which advises lawmakers, expressed serious doubts about President William Ruto government’s ability to meet its ambitious revenue collection goal. The office warned that consistent revenue shortfalls and a narrow, overburdened tax base could threaten the credibility and sustainability of the national budget.