The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said it forecast global 2016-17 coffee production up 2.4 per cent from a year ago, with a record arabica crop in top grower Brazil more than offsetting smaller robusta harvests.
Global output for the current crop year was pegged at 156.6 million 60-kg bags, up from the USDA’s June estimate of 155.7 and up from 2015-16 at 152.9 million bags.
Consumption was seen reaching a record 153.3 million bags, drawing ending inventories to a five-year low, most notably in producing countries, the USDA said in a biannual report.
“World exports are expected to slip from last year’s record primarily due to lower shipments from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil,” the report said.
The USDA pegged output in top grower Brazil at 56.1 million bags, up from the prior year, with the arabica harvest seen at 45.6 million bags and robusta at 10.5 million bags.
Vietnam, the world’s biggest robusta grower, was expected to harvest 26.7 million bags in 2016-17, down from a June estimate of 27.3 million, due to high temperatures and dry growing conditions in early 2016. Colombia, the world’s biggest washed-arabica producer, was forecast to harvest 14.5 million bags, up from the June estimate at 13.3 million bags due to a replanting programme and favorable weather.