Tough times ahead in final year of coalition

By OSCAR OBONYO

There are signs that the life of the Grand Coalition could end the same way it started four years ago — on a turbulent note.

The unhappy marriage between ODM and a PNU-led coalition, sealed to end a political crisis, comes to a close within a year. While it has had its honeymoon periods from time to time, there has been no shortage of domestic disturbances, either playing out in public or behind closed doors.

Gone Full Circle: The beginning was rough. Now the Grand Coalition is headed for troubled waters again as President and Prime Minister clash on four crucial issues [Photo: File/Standard]

The latest issues causing rifts between the two coalition partners are so explosive they will require significant goodwill and statesmanship from President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga to avoid raising political temperatures in a country still healing from the rifts caused in 2007.

Trouble is brewing between the two on four clear battlefronts — the date of the next election, the Devolution Bill, the composition of the Police Service Commission, and the Government’s position on the International Criminal Court process.

That Kibaki and Raila have taken hard and conflicting stands on these issues is a pointer to the friction ahead. Government Joint Chief Whip, Jakoyo Midiwo, says the issues are so dear to the PM and his ODM party, they must be pushed through.

Disagreement over the election date has proved particularly explosive, with the Judiciary and the electoral commission caught in the crossfire after public statements on the matter by the President and Prime Minister.

A planned meeting between the two to settle the issue failed to take off, as did an Appeals Court hearing that may have informed it.

Dennis Onyango, the Director of Communication in the PM’s Office, said there was no need for the meeting, as it had been pre-empted by events preceding it, including the electoral body’s announcement of the election date.

Days before the scheduled meeting, President Kibaki seemed to imply preference for the option of a March 2013 election proposed in a constitutional court’s advisory opinion in January. This was in a clarification to an offhand remark that suggested he favoured elections "at the end of this year".

This confusion prompted the PM to restate his preference for a December 2012 poll, which was the second option provided for in the advisory opinion. He later went ahead to slam the constitutional court for its judgement, for which he has since apologised.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) announced March 4, 2013, as the election date, saying it had failed to get Kibaki and Raila to commit to bringing the coalition to an end to allow for elections in December.

Allies of the President say the impasse came about because it was not clear if ending the coalition would trigger the dissolution of Parliament, leading to an election, or create a constitutional crisis. ODM, however, suspects it was not a coincidence that the IEBC made its announcement four days after the President made his preference known.

Respect court’s decision

In a quick rejoinder, however, the Head of President Kibaki’s Press Service Unit, Isaiya Kabira, says the President was not stating a preference, only settling on the only viable court-provided option. Kabira points out that the President "has already stated that he will respect the decisions of the courts with regard to the election date". The Appeals Court ruling on the same matter is set for next week.

"An election date is an important calendar event in any nation. President Kibaki is fully aware of this (and has no reason to delay it). Indeed, it begs the question of what can he do in (an extra) three months that he will not have done in his ten years as President or over 55 years in service to our country," he said.

Recently, Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua asked the President and Prime Minister to demonstrate statesmanship by dissolving the Grand Coalition Government in time for a December General Election. In an open letter to the principals, Karua said the dissolution of Government was an option given by the recent electoral court ruling. The Appeal Court ruling next week may help settle the question of whether dissolution will make a December poll possible.

As the country moves closer to the first election under the new constitution and the Kibaki succession, the feuding between the two coalition partners is likely to intensify. Within the Raila camp, much of the anger arises from the feeling that the President, through the national security apparatus, has allowed Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto to discredit Raila at public rallies across the country. The two ICC accused plan to contest the presidency despite pending trials in The Hague, taking on perceived frontrunner, Raila.

Sponsor rallies

The thinking within the PM’s corner is that the President’s handling of the ICC question favours the two. Indeed, this is what informed the recent remark from the Raila Secretariat that Uhuru and Ruto belong in jail while awaiting trial.

Reached for comment, however, Ruto was categorical that President Kibaki was not the type to sponsor rallies for other people. He said blaming the President for the rallies suggested a poor understanding of how Government works.

"Tinga (PM) and his team must be trapped in (thoughts of) the old order where the Provincial Administration was used to stifle the people’s constitutional right of freedom of assembly and speech," reacted Ruto. The MP opines that ODM should learn to sort out its problems without dragging in other players: "If the prayer rallies are the issue, then why don’t they organise their own rallies and pray for those they wish to pray for?"

Kabira adds that asking the President to stop one group from peacefully propagating its views is calling for him to stop being neutral.

"President Kibaki’s only interest at the moment is a free, fair and credible election and a smooth peaceful transition," he says. Kabira adds that he sees nothing in the recent developments that suggests things are spiralling out of control. "Together they (Kibaki and Raila) have steered the Grand Coalition through both trying and fulfilling moments."

Mathira MP, Ephraim Maina, is optimistic that the coalition leaders will pull through. Stating that he has a lot of respect for the two, Maina instead blames Kibaki-Raila handlers of poisoning the environment for narrow selfish gains.

"It was never easy from the beginning, but these two gentlemen have proved before that, however hot the issues are, they have the capacity to sort them out," says Maina, the Chairman of Central Kenya MPs caucus.

The emerging heat is just part of the wider drama that was re-ignited early this month by the nomination of members to the influential Police Service Commission. Raila raised the red flag by disassociating himself from the list of nominees presented by the President to Parliament. He maintains he was not consulted over the final decision.

The nominees were Amina Masoud as the Chair, and Esther Chui-Colombini, Ronald Musengi, James Atema, Shadrack Mutia, and Mary Auma as Commissioners. Masoud was ranked third behind Johnston Kavuludi who scored 77 per cent, and Murshid Mohamed who had 75. It is not clear why the two were left out.

Local special tribunal

The current standoff rekindles memories of last year on January 27 when President Kibaki nominated Court of Appeal Judge Alnashir Visram as Chief Justice, Prof Githu Muigai as Attorney General and lawyer Kioko Kilukumi as Director of Public Prosecutions. Raila, who was out of the country, rejected the nominations saying he had not been consulted, thereby forcing Kibaki to retreat.

In the meantime, the ICC debate and lately, the alleged forged UK-Government letter, continue to generate more heat. Except for their initial support for setting up a local special tribunal to try the suspects, Kibaki and Raila have walked different paths on the ICC matter.

The latest flap came after a dossier suggesting Western nations were pushing for Kibaki’s indictment by the ICC under a Raila presidency was tabled in Parliament. The dossier, dismissed as "not genuine", has irked the ODM leader greatly for suggesting he was either a foreign puppet or a conspirator in securing the indictments of Uhuru and Ruto. Raila is reportedly surprised that Kibaki has not reprimanded those dragging his (President) name into the ICC process.

Noting that President Kibaki formed an independent team to advise Government following the ICC rulings, Kabira denies alleged ill intentions on the part of the President. That team, he says, included Paul Mwangi, the legal advisor in the PM’s office. The President received the team’s report last week.

Another clashing point revolves around the question of devolution. Raila’s Orange party recently released a statement vowing to fully support the devolved system of Government. The President has, however, declined to sign the Devolution Bill into law raising objections on several issues related to security.

"Kibaki will not be President after the next elections. It is important that his candid views on who will wield the power over security both nationally and locally be heard. To have police officers answerable to a governor is to invite chaos in our country," says Kabira.