Inside Wetang'ula and Mudavadi's battle for Western Kenya

For the last two election cycles, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi have walked the same political path.

They campaigned together under the Kenya Kwanza coalition, uniting Ford Kenya (Wetang'ula) and Amani National Congress (Mudavadi) with President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) to win the 2022 race to State House.

But beneath the public display of solidarity, a perceived fierce succession contest is quietly taking shape.

What is currently a partnership to deliver Western Kenya to President William Ruto in 2027 is increasingly evolving into a contest over who will inherit the region's political mantle—and ultimately carry its presidential hopes in 2032.

Together, they have repeatedly assured the Luhya community that unity is the surest route to State House when Ruto is expected to complete his constitutional two terms if re-elected.

For more than a year, Wetang'ula (69) has aggressively occupied the political space across Western Kenya.

Every weekend has seen him traverse Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Vihiga and Trans Nzoia counties, presiding over economic empowerment drives, church fundraisers, youth meetings and development launches.

The Speaker has been accompanied by governors, senators, MPs and MCAs, many of whom have openly declared him the region's preferred presidential candidate after Ruto.

At nearly every stop, Wetang'ula delivers the same message: Western Kenya must remain united behind Ruto in 2027 while preparing to negotiate for the presidency in 2032.

His campaign has effectively placed him at the centre of regional politics.

In contrast, Mudavadi (65) has largely remained absent from grassroots mobilisation.

Since dissolving ANC into UDA in 2025, the Prime Cabinet Secretary has devoted much of his time to national government responsibilities, accompanying President Ruto.

The journeys have been on diplomatic missions abroad and representing Kenya in bilateral engagements covering trade, education, health, culture and foreign policy.

The contrast has not gone unnoticed, with political observers increasingly asking whether  Wetang'ula has quietly taken over Western Kenya's political leadership.

That perception prompted Mudavadi's return. Last week, the former Vice-President spent four consecutive days touring Trans Nzoia, Kakamega and Vihiga counties in what many interpreted as an attempt to reclaim political ground.

National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula leads Kenya Kwanza politicians to a rally at Silverline, Eldoret town, Uasin Gishu County. [@HonWetangula, X]

Speaking during a fundraiser for Universal Health Programme workers in Kiminini Constituency, Mudavadi declared that he was back.

"I am now back. From now on, I am going to be on the ground with you so that we can listen to each other, play politics together and move forward in an organised manner like brothers and sisters," he said.

He was accompanied by Kiminini MP Kakai Bisau, Trans Nzoia Senator Allan Chesang, Uasin Gishu Senator Jackson Mandago, Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula and Shinyalu MP Fred Ikana, among other leaders.

Mudavadi explained that his prolonged absence had been dictated by government assignments.

He said President Ruto inherited an economy in distress and required senior government officials to focus on stabilising the country while rebuilding Kenya's international relations.

"President Ruto did not have it easy when he took over power. The economy was in a very bad state. We needed to put in every effort in order to straighten matters," he explained to the residents.

He added, "Things have somewhat settled now. That is why I am back home to work with you. I am going to be around with you up to the time of the next elections."

His allies insist the Prime Cabinet Secretary has not abandoned Western Kenya but merely prioritised national duty over local politics.

Still, many believe the political landscape has shifted considerably during his absence.

Wetang'ula's heightened visibility follows one of the most difficult moments of his political career.

Late last year, Ford Kenya suffered a humiliating defeat in the Chwele-Kabuchai Ward by-election in Bungoma County.

The former Bungoma Senator had personally campaigned for Ford Kenya candidate Vincent Maunda in what was widely viewed as a referendum on his continued dominance in Bungoma politics.

Instead, independent candidate Erick Wekesa, backed by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, former Bungoma Governor Wycliffe Wangamati and Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, won convincingly with 6,162 votes against Maunda's 2,765.

Perhaps more painfully for Wetang'ula, Wekesa also defeated the Ford Kenya candidate at Namakhele Primary School, where the Speaker cast his own vote.

The defeat sent shockwaves across Western Kenya, with critics questioning whether Wetang'ula's influence was waning, while some even debated whether his standing within President Ruto's government had weakened.

Kalasinga described the outcome as evidence that voters were abandoning the era of regional political kingpins.

"Wekesa's victory shows that those who thought they were godfathers in the region should know that voters have changed their mindset," he said after the election.

The by-election also cemented Natembeya's emergence as one of the biggest threats to Western Kenya's traditional political order.

Through his Tawe Movement, the Trans Nzoia governor has built support among young voters frustrated by decades of unfulfilled promises.

He argues that Western Kenya should pursue the presidency immediately in 2027 instead of waiting until 2032.

The Chwele setback appears to have forced Wetang'ula to recalibrate.

Almost immediately afterwards, the Speaker intensified empowerment programmes across the region, using them to reconnect with grassroots supporters while rallying leaders behind his broader political strategy.

He has gone too far in his political moves, even attracting criticism over the constitutional expectations of his office.

The Speaker of the National Assembly is expected to remain impartial while presiding over parliamentary business.

Yet Wetang'ula has increasingly been seen announcing government projects, issuing directives on stalled infrastructure, leading political rallies and spearheading empowerment initiatives.

Political analyst Moses Ombayo believes the Speaker is using the office to consolidate political influence ahead of future elections.

"He knows very well that he might not hold this space come 2027, and for that reason, he wants to grow his regional influence and bargain for a top seat," Ombayo says.

According to him, Wetang'ula has identified a leadership vacuum in Western Kenya and is moving quickly to fill it before other contenders gain momentum.

The Speaker has not hidden his ambitions. During a meeting in Kikwameti, Trans Nzoia County, he declared that senior Luhya leaders had endorsed his presidential ambitions.

"I am the most senior leader from the Western region, and my position as the third in command gives me a better chance to succeed President Ruto," he said.

He dismissed critics questioning his frequent political engagements as "enemies of the Luhya nation."

His inroads have seen even President Ruto's aide Farouk Kibet and Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot publicly declare that a politician from the region deserves to succeed Ruto in 2032 (if the incumbent wins re-election).

Speaking during an empowerment programme in Khwisero, Kibet dismissed the long-held belief that the Luhya community cannot produce a president.

"It is not cast in stone that the Luhya nation cannot produce a president. We want the presidency to move from Rift Valley after President Ruto to Western Kenya because we have leaders with the ability and capacity to lead the country," he said.

The Western Region MPs Caucus, chaired by Sirisia MP John Walukhe, has also backed Wetang'ula.

Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera and Navakholo MP Emmanuel Wangwe have urged residents to rally behind the Speaker, saying he possesses the experience required to lead the country.

Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka and Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa have similarly declared support for Wetang'ula's 2032 bid.

Despite the perceived rivalry, both Mudavadi and Wetang'ula remain publicly committed to delivering Western Kenya to President Ruto in 2027.

But beyond that election lies a far more complicated political contest.

Their allies have increasingly floated both men as possible running mates to Ruto should political realignments emerge before 2027.

However, that proposition has encountered resistance.

Supporters of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki insist the deputy presidency should remain in the Mt Kenya region, while Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga has also featured in succession discussions within the broad-based government arrangement.

Meanwhile, the two veterans face pressure from a younger generation of politicians.

Natembeya and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna have mobilised supporters  under the Linda Mwananchi movement, challenging the dominance of established political figures.

Natembeya argues that Wetang'ula and Mudavadi have failed to transform Western Kenya despite decades in national leadership.

Beyond the Kenya Kwanza camp, other Luhya politicians are equally nurturing presidential ambitions.

DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah and Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya continue to position themselves nationally.

Sifuna's emergence has further complicated the succession equation.

While Wetang'ula and Mudavadi remain tied to government and are widely viewed as 2032 contenders, Sifuna, Omtatah and Wamalwa appear increasingly focused on mounting active presidential campaigns in 2027.

Analysts warn that while competition is inevitable, an open rivalry between Wetang'ula and Mudavadi could undermine President Ruto's efforts to consolidate support in Western Kenya ahead of the next General Election.

"For now, both leaders insist they are working together, but every empowerment meeting, every fundraiser, every endorsement and every grassroots tour increasingly appears to serve two purposes: delivering votes for Ruto in 2027 while quietly positioning one man ahead of the other for the much bigger prize that awaits in 2032," notes David Owino, a political analyst.