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What next after curfew expires?

President Uhuru Kenyatta is today expected to announce a review on the lockdown and curfew measures that have been in place for 51 days.

The country yesterday recorded 23 new Covid-19 infections, taking the tally to 781.

The new infections were recorded across Nairobi (11) Mombasa (5), Kajiado (3), Wajir (2) and Kiambu (2). Some 287 people diagnosed with the disease had recovered by yesterday, with three more deaths reported, raising the number to 45.

Even with a recovery of almost 40 per cent, a virologist has maintained that a vaccine is the only hope against Covid-19.

The death rate in the country, which stands at 5.7 per cent, is still below the average global of seven per cent. During the Ministry of Health briefing yesterday, officials maintained that measures taken on hand-washing and social distancing still remained critical in stemming the number of infections.

“It is those measures that have assisted us in breaking the transmission cycle,” said Health Chief Administrative Secretary Rashid Aman.

Dr Aman said even with the little progress the country has witnessed, it is still important for Kenyans not to stop the measures on hand-washing and social distancing.

Only way out

But Prof Omu Anzala (pictured), a virologist and immunologist at the University of Nairobi, insists a vaccine is the only way out of this crisis.

“Hand washing and social distancing is just a short term measure. We need a vaccine, even if it is not long term, but short term, like influenza which we will need to immunise now and then,” said Prof Anzala.

The disease, as explained by the World Health Organisation (WHO), is endemic, which means it might be around longer and almost mimick HIV/Aids.

Kenya is one of the countries approved by the WHO to be part of the Solidarity study. The WHO has listed eight vaccines on stages one and two as potential candidates for mass production if they pass clinical trials. Despite this progress, it can take up to five years for a vaccine to be ready as Prof Anzala says. He says vaccines have to undergo four rigorous phases before they are certified as safe for the larger human population.

The first is the Safety Study where 50 to 100 participants take part. This stage usually takes 18 months. The trial then goes to second stage, which investigates immune response involving 80 to 500 participants and takes 24 months.

Efficacy is investigated at stage three with 2,000 to 5,000 participants and takes three to five years. The final stage is effectiveness, where the vaccine, once certified, will undergo licensing before mass production starts.

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