Why Aukot stands out in 2022 duel's battle of wits

Third Way Alliance Party leader Ekuro Aukot. [Standard]

Since in politics a day is a very long time, there are no surprises. That is entertainment that involves political gymnastics, switching positions without batting eyelids. In competitive politics for high office, the trick is to make calculative moves that attract more than they repel.

This means developing expertise in looking as if you know everyone, smiling broadly and claiming that so-and-so “is my very good friend” while, at the same time, scheming how to fix a certain “good friend.”

Politicians practice Kautilian and Machiavellian advice on power grabbing and maintenance by knowing how to balance ferociousness with cunning against rivals and supposed friends. Learning the ropes of politics calls for patient observation of those who excel in the art of politics, which involves ability to create chaos and wiggle out looking angelic.

Novices tend to lack political sophistry and to blunder into blurting out weaknesses. Kenya offers many opportunities to enjoy the antics of political craftsmen as they chase the 2022 big prize.

The field for the big presidential prize is getting crowded as hitherto “weak” candidates, lest they get forgotten, begin to flex muscles.

For about two years since the 2017 elections, it seemed as if the tussle was between former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and current Deputy President William Ruto.

Both men know each other well as crafty political sophisticates. They were part of the 2002 Kanu-NDP merger operatives who hoped to amend Moi’s 1992 two-term presidential amendment, which failed due to stiff internal resistance. They had split, with Raila joining the winning Kibaki side while Ruto remained in the Uhuru-Musalia Mudavadi losing “dot.com” team.

Raila, Ruto, Uhuru and Mudavadi had successfully ganged up in the 2005 Orange and Banana referendum against Kibaki’s weak Banana team.

In 2007, as Uhuru joined Kibaki’s new Party of National Unity (PNU), Ruto and Raila remained intact in the Orange and created a “Pentagon” to fight the ‘41 against one’ political battle.

While Raila was the Pentagon’s commander-in-chief, Ruto was the most successful field commander in the Orange landscape. They succeeded in making Kibaki to give them half a loaf of the Government.Uhuru and Ruto ganged up again in 2013 and 2017 and decisively defeated Raila. Ever resourceful, Raila found ways of getting another chunk of government loaf through the March 2018 “handshake”. With Uhuru officially not a candidate in 2022, the two Pentagon colleagues have set out to discredit each other while officially singing Uhuru praises.

They have strong followers in the “Embrace” Kieleweke for Raila and in Tangatanga “Inua Mama” for Ruto women tetema and tingisha kiuno dancing groups. Gladys Wanga and Minji Minji Anne Mumbi in Embrace seemingly pared with Aisha Jumwa and Catherine Waruguru in Inua Mama. Some dancers would like to become Deputy President to one of the two. Neither Ruto, nor Raila, however, has the political field to himself.

Other presidential aspirants assert themselves in different ways. Some watch Raila and Ruto throw political brickbats at each other and seek ways of reminding voters that they also exist. One of them, Ekuru Aukot, with his Punguza Mizigo referendum initiative, has managed to divert public attention from Ruto and Raila to himself.

Having set the agenda for discussion for at least three months, he has eaten into the BBI public opinion market.

The initiative enables Aukot to travel widely to address the 47 county assemblies. Whether the ‘honourable’ assembly members are for, or against the initiative, they at least have to listen to him and discuss his proposals. No other aspirants can boast of such a forum.

Nusu mkate

Aukot inspired other aspirants to be innovative and escape from either Ruto or Raila’s political shadows. Mudavadi, for instance, wants the job but he suffers an image problem for playing second fiddle to big players.

Like Ruto, Mudavadi was a 2007 field commander and benefitted from the nusu mkate deal by becoming deputy prime minister. He also has to contend with a neighbourly distraction in Bungoma.

He struggles to put a respectable distance between himself and his 2007 Pentagon colleagues; to be his own man. Then there are scheming relatives and neighbours in Makueni and Machakos, Kivutha Kibwana and Alfred Mutua trying to accomplish two things. First, each wants to dislodge Kalonzo Musyoka from Ukambani supremacy.

Second, each wants a national reputation as a doer within his county that would catapult him upstairs.

After settling their “domestic” differences, each expects to be nationally acceptable by challenging the 2007 Pentagon commanders.

 

Prof Munene teaches History and International Relations at USIU