People to watch in 2022 presidency race

Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, Amani leader Musalia Mudavadi and Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru. [Standard]

Less than 40 months to the next presidential poll, Makueni Governor Kivutha Kibwana is the latest entrant to the complex maze of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s succession.

Kibwana’s entry only adds into a galaxy of political leaders angling for the presidency. A week ago, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri declared his interest in the deputy president’s seat, signaling early preparedness and the strategic positioning among politicians three years to the election.

Away from Deputy President William Ruto, the man only a heartbeat away from the seat, three former presidential candidates and two final term governors are in the bandwagon to replace Uhuru.

Ruto has not left any doubts about his pursuit for the 2022 crystal ball.

Two levels

He recently told listeners of Kameme FM, a popular vernacular radio station in Mt Kenya, that he will give his best for the 2022 contest.

“I will do my best but if I do not win, I will go and do farming on my land,” said Ruto. Political analyst Dismas Mokua says there are two levels of players in the 2022 race, the potential candidates and those who will easily influence the polls.

“President Kenyatta has an interest in who succeeds him and it will be foolhardy for anyone to think that he can stand in the middle of the road. It will be in his interest to decide who takes up after him,” says Mokua.

Another analyst, Danson Omari, says at the moment the country is in a similar situation to that of 2017 where President Kenyatta was the only clear candidate.

“Ruto has put his machines open for everyone to see and for that he remains the front runner, delay by others could deny them the competitiveness in the next polls,” says Omari.

To the Ruto’s team, the most formidable opponents, apart from ODM leader Raila Odinga, is Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, Amani National Congress party leader Musalia Mudavadi or Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka who all have support bases that could tilt the polls in any way.

Unlike Raila who enjoys a tacit support from his political backyard, Mudavadi and Kalonzo have fractured support bases in their bedrocks. Kalonzo is facing rebellion from Governor Kibwana, who has asked him to support his bid.

As President Kenyatta exits, Mt Kenya finds itself in an awkward position it has never been in since independence.

“Most of the players from Mt Kenya region could be forced to angle for the running mate position. None is in an enviable position to succeed Uhuru,” says Omari.

According to Omari, unless Mudavadi comes out boldly to claim his position above the rest in Western politics, the region just, like Mt Kenya, could also be forced to play second fiddle.

The entry of Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya could however tilt politics to his disadvantage given that they will be forced to scramble for same votes in their backyards. 

William Ruto

Started iff as a favourite but pundits say the rebellion within the Jubilee Party may complicate the race for him. However, with a strong political base and promising richer blocks in Rift Valley, Western, Coast and Mt Kenya up for grabs, he is a man to watch.

Raila Odinga

His handshake with President Kenyatta has given him an opportunity to build his profile as a statesman who can be trusted and has earned him respect. However, some supporters believe that he betrayed them and they have since stopped supporting him.

He has an uncanny way of building momentum towards election period and though he has not declared his interest in the 2022 seat, many believe he will be a force to reckon with. Through the handshake, he hopes to benefit from the Mt Kenya voting block if their camaraderie with Uhuru lasts.

Kalonzo Musyoka

His stab at the presidency in 2007 was impressive and helped him to solidify the support base in his political bedrock of Ukambani. His support for Raila in two presidential contests has also helped endear him to the broad politica base.

Musalia Mudavadi

He was retired President Mwai Kibaki’s preferred candidate before ‘mademoni’ confused things. He is widely seen as a safe pair of hands by most Kenyans because of his non combative politics. However, to some that is his Achilles Heels. With a possible united political base of Western, he will easily mount a serious combat for the top seat.

Gideon Moi

After two terms at the Senate, he has all it takes to propel himself into the top seat, given his influence and acceptability across the country. As the son of former President Daniel Moi, he enjoys the networks of his father and the deep admiration. He has visited several places in the country and has the political muscles to mount one of the best campaigns.

Hassan Joho

Vocal and politically charged, the Mombasa governor has in the past promised to give a stab at the presidency in 2022. His political star rose when he was vehemently opposed to President Kenyatta’s politics that marked him as a firebrand politician. He has however mellowed after the handshake and been struggling to fit his footing in the political matrix.

 Wycliffe Oparanya

Serving his last term in office and having worked as a Cabinet minister before, there will be no bigger position for Oparanya other than the presidency. He has promised to give it a stab and even asked his party leader Raila to support his bid. If he does not go for the presidency, he will most likely have a pivotal role in helping a presidential candidate make a big impact, especially if he can galvanise the Luhya nation around him.

Peter Kenneth

When he was the lawmaker for Gatanga in Murang’a County, he was ranked the best perfoming MP in the expenditure of the Constituency Development Fund (CDF), and this gave him political admiration across the country.

His attempt at the presidency became a cropper, perhaps because what would be his political base voted overwhelmingly for President Kenyatta. His stab at the Nairobi governor seat also flopped. He recently was seen aligning himself with Team Kieleweke in what is seen as preparation for 2022. Coming at a time when Mt Kenya has no heir apparent, will Kenneth take the advantage?

Kivutha Kibwana

He is the latest entrant into the presidential race, bringing with him a profile of one of the best performing governors. Serving his second term, he has no other seat to contest if he is to get elevated for his good performance. He has asked his Wiper party leader Kalonzo to shelf his ambition and endorse him.

Anne Waiguru

Having been baptised by fire before she joined politics after being hounded out of the Cabinet over allegations of corruption, her resilience that saw her win the Kirinyaga governor’s seat could prepare her for better things. Coming from a region currently in a crisis to have a son or daughter to take up from Uhuru, fate and political wit could thrust Waiguru’s shinning star to a higher position.