Matiangi's new role will attract attention from the Ruto corner

In the end, a rumoured cabinet reshuffle failed to materialise last week, and instead President Uhuru Kenyatta announced an executive order that reassigned duties within the existing cabinet. Two factors would have constrained possibility of a cabinet reshuffle. First, a cabinet reshuffle, especially one bringing new faces to cabinet, would involve legislative approval.

While Kenyatta may probably ultimately obtain such approval if needed, it would be politically demanding to process approvals before the National Assembly and this would have discouraged a more ambitious approach regarding his cabinet. The constraint imposed by legislative approval is not unique to Kenya: countries whose cabinets require parliamentary approval have fewer mid-term reshuffles than those where such approval is not needed.

Secondly, even after Jubilee transformed from a coalition of parties to a unitary party last year, the party still operates much like a coalition and continues to process decisions as though it was still a coalition. Initially, Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, came together in 2013 to form the Jubilee Alliance as a moiety in which they had decision-making parity. While the coalition dissolved into a single party ahead of the elections last year, and although it swallowed a number of smaller parties in the process, the internal character did not change and Jubilee operates as though it was still a coalition of the two. As part of this, the smaller parties that joined Jubilee disappeared inside and have not had a discernible say in the internal affairs of the party.

On the contrary, the dominant roles that Kenyatta and Ruto played when Jubilee was a coalition have remained unaffected by the merger into a single party. Because Ruto still has such a strong place in Jubilee, Kenyatta would be unable to carry out a cabinet reshuffle that does not involve his deputy. A growing perception of a breakdown in their relationship makes it unlikely that Kenyatta can negotiate a cabinet reshuffle with Ruto. To avoid having to consult Ruto, and still achieve what he wants, Kenyatta has resorted to an executive order, a unilateral presidential instrument.

There were rumours that if a cabinet reshuffle happened, new faces allied with opposition leader Raila Odinga would join, in furtherance of his cooperation with Kenyatta. The reasons which discouraged a cabinet reshuffle in the first place would have asserted themselves more forcefully if accommodating Raila was attempted.

There has been much discussion about the true motivation behind the changes that Kenyatta announced and their possible implications on the country’s politics. In particular, there has been much interest in the president’s decision to hand Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, a coordinating and leadership role. While big beasts have always risen to the role of super ministers in Kenya, these have been organic occurrences based on specific political dynamics.

In the history of Kenyan politics there is no precedent of a process to officially elevate one minister over others. Because the working understanding is that the deputy president ranks immediately after the president and before ministers who internally rank laterally, the elevation of Dr Matiang’i is rightly seen as a major political event. A widely held view is that Kenyatta has now elevated Matiang’i to the position of a prime minister, and that this arrangement supplants Ruto, much of whose roles Matiang’i will now take over. Because this is new territory for the country, it is difficult to be definitive about this assessment and only time will tell whether it is correct.

However, two observations seem safe to make. The first is about the relationship between Kenyatta and Ruto. The use of an executive order to bring cabinet changes has enabled the president to sidestep the hurdle of negotiating with Ruto. In effect, Kenyatta has pulled rank, further repudiating claims of equality with Ruto, a fact that will only further sunder the two. If Matiangi’s new roles puts him in a collision course with Ruto, as has been predicated, it will be more difficult for Kenyatta and Ruto to address any resulting conflict.

The second remark is about Matiang’i. It is easy to see why Kenyatta would pick him for this role. First, Matiang’i breaks the ethnic monopoly in Jubilee where most key positions are held by the co-ethnics of Kenyatta or Ruto. Second, a common criticism of Jubilee is that its cabinet is largely made up of colourless and servile individuals, a cabinet without big beasts. A strong personality, Matiang’i is a rather rare contrast with this assessment and has cultivated a high profile since he came to office as cabinet. For example, his performance as Education Cabinet Secretary received public acclaim and won him public admiration. He was widely viewed as the de facto leader at cabinet and in a sense Kenyatta has only formalised this reality.

Whatever happens next, his new role now brings Matiang’i into sharp public focus, and will also bring him greater attention from the Ruto corner.

- The writer is the Executive Director at KHRC. [email protected]