My challenge to Ruto over 2022 contest

It is now common knowledge that all is not well in Jubilee.

Regular readers of this column may remember a hypothesis I floated last year that Deputy President William Ruto’s stock would plummet the day after President Uhuru Kenyatta is reelected.

And so it has come to pass. Kenyatta no longer needs Ruto, especially after the rapprochement with Hon Raila Odinga in March.

Furthermore, being the man to beat in 2022, Ruto has effectively painted a giant red dot on his back. Everyone with an ambition to be president will be gunning for him.

And if recent murmurs are anything, there are powerful people within and outside of government that will do anything and everything to ensure Ruto does not become President.

Assuming that the fifth presidency is Ruto’s to lose, then he should use the next five years to prove himself.

The man from Sugoi ought to understand that it is not ordained that he will be president. He has to work for it, day and night. It’s also fair to say that so far he has been making wrong investments.

People in the know readily admit that Ruto is not loyal and that his transactional approach to politics exposes him to allies who are only interested in money.

This should not surprise anyone. Incentives matter. And once you have a reputation of being Mr Moneybags, you are likely to attract “loyalists” who care not for your cause but for the size of your wallet.

Furthermore, buying support will probably become harder. Lifestyle audits will make people be queasy about receiving easy money.

With this in mind, I would like to pose a challenge to Mr Ruto. There are two ways of winning the presidency.

The first, and the one we are all most familiar with, is by buying votes – whether by targeting voters, political elites, or critical individuals in important institutions of state.

This strategy has worked in the last two elections. But it is also disastrous for the regular Mwananchi as it severs the accountability chain between voters and their elected officials. Another way is to appeal to the needs and aspirations of voters.

Such would involve thinking seriously about the myriad problems afflicting our people and providing real solutions.

I would like to challenge Ruto to focus on the latter approach. For all intents and purposes, what we have right now is a nusu-mkate government.

What if Ruto took the time to ensure Cabinet Secretaries under his docket actually delivered for Wananchi?

What if he went further and formed alliances with willing governors to showcase his administrative and policy chops?

And to increase his odds of success, he could even pick policy areas complementary to Kenyatta’s Big Four legacy projects.

That way he would work to cement Kenyatta’s legacy while at the same time planting seeds for his own electoral success.

Is this too much daydreaming? Most likely. But the more important question ought to be directed at Ruto: just how badly does he want to be president?

If the answer is very badly, then he has to change tack. The politics of funerals, “kutenga”, and commissioning half-baked projects will not cut it.

Nor will pouring cash everywhere. The forces set against his presidential ambitions are formidable enough to stop him if he plays same old games.

- The writer is an Assistant Professor at Georgetown University. Twitter: @kopalo