Despite lingering questions, launch of SGR was historic

Madaraka Express launched by President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The launch of the SGR earlier this week was a moment of national pride. The excitement of people on the inaugural ride of the Madaraka Express, which was shared on social media, helped those who did not attend feel part of the important moment.

For my analysis, I will rely on the work of Bent Flyvbjerg, a University of Oxford scholar, who has conducted extensive research on mega-projects worldwide. One of his findings has been what he calls the “iron law of mega projects” where he argues that mega projects are repeatedly over time, over budget, and under benefits.

With regards to time, this project scores well. As perhaps the most important project of his first term, the President was determined to launch it before the election in August. He achieved that despite numerous challenges to the project. For this, he deserves congratulations.

Moving the focus away from reminders about the failures of the Jubilee government, the delivery of this project has demonstrated solid leadership from the President and an impressive administrative capacity.

On the budget, this project is clearly not only expensive but has overrun its costs. This is an important issue for all of us and should be addressed in a reasonable manner. It has been given prominence by two key opposition leaders, Raila Odinga and Hassan Joho.

Joho had threatened to stop the launch of the train service while Raila threatened to jail those responsible for inflation of costs. Underlying these statement is suspicion that the project is riddled with corruption.

Given that cost overruns on such projects are normal, perhaps a reasonable starting point would be to verify the real drivers of the higher costs. Perhaps, interrogate the explanation the government has been offering, for instance, the higher costs of land compensation, first.

The questions of time and cost are important, but it is perhaps on the benefits front where the heart of the matter lies. The feasibility of the project has been questioned since the beginning. To be honest, I share some of the suspicions and from Flyvbjerg’s work, we can expect that the return on investments will not be as we have been promised. However, I have chosen to take a pragmatic approach to this one.

The ideological view of the Jubilee government in terms of how to achieve development is clear. They see infrastructure as a driver of economic growth and have stuck to their guns despite tremendous opposition.

Their focus has been on transport infrastructure and energy. This is certainly not the only way of attaining development, if at all, and others will have different ideas. We cannot be fully clear whether this project will pay off or how long it will take.

We do know, however, that there is a railway and locomotives that we can see, touch and feel. They will be here for a long time. What we don’t know is what the opposition would have done instead of the railway if they had been in office. This is particularly important because it would be key for us to know what they would do with the ongoing projects if they are elected into office. Will they continue with them, restructure them or completely stop them? This would help us figure the costs that we would have to bear. For instance, if the opposition to SGR would lead them to stop it, we would basically have wasted all the money we have put in.

However, Raila’s comments give me the impression that the project would continue. Given that Raila is attempting to take credit for the project as he argues it was conceptualised in the Grand Coalition days, he’d possibly like to see his name on a plaque somewhere on the project, if elected. The rest is campaign rhetoric.

Nonetheless, I find it preposterous for him to attempt to cautioning President Kenyatta against using the SGR to campaign for his re-election. His attempt to ‘depoliticise’ the debate by conflating words with action is confounding. If design and delivery are to carry the same weight, perhaps we will see them include the conceptualisation of LAPPSET in their list of major achievements when they were in government.

-The writer is a researcher and analyst in Nairobi.

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