Jubilee will regret political consequences of maize crisis

This week, the government admitted that the ongoing food crisis caught them off-guard, thus confirming what most analysts had feared. The Principal Secretary for Agriculture admitted that the government knew of a looming maize shortage well in advance, but did nothing.

Instead of allowing imports and beefing up its strategic reserves at reasonable prices, it opted to serve the interest of the middlemen who buy maize from farmers and distribute to millers and other markets. The delay in imports and the failure to stock up on enough maize has now rendered tens of thousands of households food insecure.

To compound this instance of gross negligence, the political leadership in government has since opted to use the man-made disaster as a campaign tool ahead of the August polls. Hence the fiasco of government officials receiving consignments of maize imports that were allegedly bought by private firms; or the absurdity of government stamps on maize mill sold in private shops. Now the state has the unenviable task of ensuring consumers buy the maize at the “right” price.

Good luck with that. Economics 101 teaches us that whenever there are two prices for a commodity, smart people will arbitrage across markets. Only a fool (or a saint) would pass up the opportunity of buying government maize at Sh90 and selling it for much higher. It does not help matters that the maize shortage has led to rationing in supermarkets and shops. All this means is that those with the means will be willing to pay more to buy more than the stipulated ration.

Again, smart people will find ways of circumventing the artificial market that government is trying to create. As I wrote in these pages last week, the ongoing maize shortage exposes the callous approach this government has to matters of national importance. In a sanely run electoral democracy, the damning admission by the PS ought to have triggered resignations of the officials that dropped the ball.

Yet we continue to operate like this was an act of God. And because no one is taking any responsibility, no lessons will be learned. Soon, we will probably be back at the same place. With our voracious leeches-for-leaders at the ready to make a killing on the backs of struggling Kenyans.

Indeed, we may not have to wait for a few years. Right now, much of our breadbasket in the west of the country is being ravaged by army worms. What that means is that the current palliative approach taken by the government – which is purely electorally-driven – will not be enough to forestall an even bigger food crisis down the road. There simply will not be enough money to give to tenderpreneurs masquerading as millers while at the same time feed hungry Wananchi. At some point, the concerned government officials will have to decide whether doing their jobs is worth their while.

It is worth reiterating the oddity of the Jubilee administration failing farmers, and the agricultural sector in general, to this level. Back in 2013, it seemed like the administration was going to build a formidable political coalition anchored around farming interests, petty traders, and the growing urban working classes.

Such an approach would have found ready political following in all corners of the country. Kenyans were ready for change. But instead, they got fed petty tribal politics. And so four years later, instead of the promised progress, the skyrocketing cost of living has imposed a de facto tax on everyone and diminished real standards of living. The only people doing well are those with the right political connections that allow them access to seemingly unlimited cash.

—The writer is an Assistant Professor at Georgetown University. Twitter: @kopalo