Clear indicators are on surface on who will be Kenya's president come August

Gloves are off as the country enters the campaign mood starting this Sunday with either side of the political divide chest-thumping of a guaranteed win after the August 8 General Elections.

Both President Uhuru Kenyatta on Jubilee Party ticket and his main opponent Raila Odinga flying the NASA flag are basing their victory hopes on getting a huge voter turnout, especially from their strongholds while praying for voter apathy from the rival camp.

However, like previous elections, it is impossible to have a 100 per cent turnout. Jubilee, which is rubbing its hands with glee has the advantage of the incumbency and is targeting to claim a 70 per cent plus one dominance so as to erase any doubt about the endorsement of President Uhuru Kenyatta for another five years in State House.

NASA’s “10 million strong” vote basket for the August 8 General Elections has since been dismissed by the public as wishful thinking saying Raila Odinga is preparing for a mass demonstration when he finally loses the vote in August. Following shambolic nominations in opposition zones, Raila has been dismissed with his call for a six-piece vote. The People cannot be cheated twice; Raila has failed to redeem himself, he is a liar and thrives on letting people wallow in poverty.

Political analysts from both Jubilee and NASA parties know the reality that the number of newly registered voters released by IEBC gives Jubilee Party a head start. It is clear this time round, Jubilee Party will win by a bigger margin compared to 2013 and whatever the Opposition does to avoid the inevitable defeat will fail.

In the last elections, the Opposition enjoyed a slight majority in six out of the seven counties marked as battlegrounds, but still, that did not stop Uhuru Kenyatta from routing Raila Odinga on the first attempt with over 50 per cent of the registered population voting him in office. Today, Jubilee has more counties against the combined Opposition.

Though NASA and its affiliate parties may have more governors in office ahead of the elections in August, they have failed to deliver across the country and many a time, they have cried out loud to be allowed to claim credit for many National government projects in their regions. It is hard to see the many governors affiliated with NASA translating their dominance to numbers because having a majority of the counties is no guarantee of victory and soon Jubilee will sweep them out of office.

But for any side to claim victory in the elections in August, the number of registered voters and actual voter turnouts are critical. Secondly, a few of the governors who were elected on CORD ticket have joined the government, bringing along other leaders and a horde of supporters, all increasing the numbers of Jubilee.

Take the case of Marsabit Governor Ukur Yattani, who in March decamped from ODM together with four Members of Parliament, 25 Members of County Assembly and more than 300 elders representing the 15 communities living in the county to back President Kenyatta’s re-election. This will certainly eat into NASA’s 10 million strong!

And like in 2013, where Raila was hoping for a runoff, there will be no third force to push the polls to the second round. In the 2013 election, there was 86 per cent voter turned out and with the enhanced civic education and work done and demonstrated by Jubilee that will increase in support of the ruling coalition.

However, the impact of political realignments like the one witnessed since 2013, the Raila factor as well as to what extent the electorate will be swayed by the manifestos of the competing parties will determine the outcome of the August 8 General Elections. But from what is circulating on social media platforms, Jubilee will win the elections with 58 per cent of the votes against NASA’s 41.