How high population scuttled the 1966 development plan

In June 1964, just a year after independence, Kenya’s economists settled on a six-year development plan that was expected to grow the economy at a faster rate.

However, hardly two years later, the population pressure scuttled the plan, forcing national planners back to the drawing board.

Drought, food shortage, housing shortage and soaring house rents meant that the plan could not stand the test of time.

The East African Standard of June 11, 1964, a copy which is still archived at The Standard Group’s library led with headline ‘Gigantic Six-Year Plan’ as the planners said that it was expected to help the economy yield £364 million (Sh7.28 billion) by 1970.

At that time, one Kenyan pound was an equivalent of Sh20. Announcing the plans, Jomo Kenyatta, then the Prime Minister said the 1964-1970 plan was geared towards promoting equity. “The plan is designed in such a way that our citizens will play a greater role in the economy and substantially increase their share of benefits,” said Mr Kenyatta, as quoted in The East African Standard.

The plan was expected to increase the average income of each family by £200 a year. This translates to Sh4,000. It was on assumption that families will increase from 400,000 to 1.8 million families by 1970.

It also provided for an increase in education and health facilities, housing schemes and provident fund. The number of tourists was expected to treble in six years.

Tax revenues

With income tax looming, the prime minister said that as much as Kenya would reach out to the international partners, it wanted a self-sufficient economy.

“We intend to promote increased savings. We will ensure that our tax revenues begin to pay for an increasing portion of development expenditure,” he said. Currently, most of Kenya’s development budget is financed through debt. The country continues to soak in more debt and now owes other countries and agencies more than Sh3.8 trillion.

There was also plan for roads, rail, communications, post office services and electric power which were expected to address unemployment.

To increase food security, the plan also provided a road map to increase acres of land under cultivation and also open irrigation schemes.

Ultimately, the plan was to establish a society where all major social services such as public health and education would be provided by the State.

But as observed by Mzee Kenyatta, making all these a reality was the real work. “A plan is just a skeleton of hopes and intentions.

To increase our income, much will depend on personal initiative, hard work and sacrifice,” he cautioned.

As cautioned by Mr Kenyatta, a high rise in population at a pace that was not envisioned by the planners complicated matters.

In July 1965, Kenya’s Ambassador to the US, Burudi Nabwera warned that any gains made by Kenya’s economy could be cancelled by rising birth rate.

“Unless economic growth is rapid enough and at a higher rate, any gains made by the economy will be wiped out by this steady increase in numbers,” warned Nabwera.

At that time, Kenya’s population of nine million was increasing at three per cent per year.

According to Nabwera, the plan that was supposed to see schools, teachers, trained manpower and other social needs increased, would not match the pressure from population.

He said the development plan, which had been drawn up with the advice of some foreign experts was proving ineffective because of population pressure.

“After only one and a half years, we have found that this plan is already out-of-date and we are now trying to revise it,” said Nabwire.

He added that in the absence of enough food to eat, good houses to live in and good clothes to wear, “independence will be a shame.” Yet, rising population was posing a threat.

Indeed, in April 1966, Mwai Kibaki, then the Donholm MP as well as Minister for Economic Planning and Development, said Nairobi’s population alone was growing at six per cent per year. He termed it “alarming rate.”