OPINION: NASA will flop once Raila Odinga declares himself flag bearer

CORD Leader Raila Odinga addresses during NASA meeting at Bomas of Kenya. (Photo: Boniface Okendo/Standard)

Once upon a time, the wind and the sun argued about who was stronger. On seeing a traveller, they agreed that a suitable test would be to strip him of his coat. First, the wind blew with all his might, but the more he blew, the more the man wrapped the coat tightly around himself. When the sun’s turn came, he gently beamed at the man, who loosened the coat. The sun shone brighter still, and the man threw off his coat.

Let us apply this analogy to Opposition unity. For Raila Odinga’s co-principals to take off their coats of ambition with minimal resistance, the former Prime Minister’s domineering approach will not work. This will in fact leave room for Jubilee to beam and grin suggestively at Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula.

What’s more; Opposition unity in Kenya is a rare creature last sighted in 2002. And even then, it met its premature death very soon after, making NARC the first and only ruling party to acrimoniously disband while still in government. There are 100 reasons why Opposition unity is nothing but political nonsense this election year, but I will only explore four.

The first is the ‘Bomas Extravaganza’. Those who have eyes could see; the Bomas Opposition unity party was a woeful charade. The opposition leaders themselves looked like the ‘coalition of the unwilling’— dragged to Bomas by the ear. In fact, we only saw a display of passion when Kalonzo mentioned the words, ‘betrayal’, ‘sacrifice’, and ‘cards on the table’.

The fiesta ended without us getting a picture of what this mammoth NASA looks like, who will drive it, how we can join it, what it will do and how it will do it. Everyone looked tense, only Nick Salat looked like he was having the time of his life. In fact, he looked like he was just in the neighbourhood, heard that there is a party going on and he quickly joined in. Only to be chastised hours later by his ‘parents’ Kanu, for being sidetracked and hanging out with ‘bad company’.

The second is the 1992 election history repeating itself. The 2017 electoral cycle is the 1992 elections all over again. This is because the leaders in the present opposition are an alliance of equals. Just like 1992 when Kibaki was facing off with Matiba, there is no older statesman this year to dominate the Opposition into consensus. Oginga Odinga, who had been in the political cold since 1966, had little clout amongst them then. In 2002, Kibaki was the de facto leader, in fact, the leadership was naturally placed on him. The conditions in 1992 obtain today in 2017. The battle for supremacy among the Opposition principals will be vicious.

Thirdly, choosing a leader in a united Opposition is like rocket science. Towards the 1997 elections, an inter-party committee with representatives from Ford Asili, Ford Kenya, DP and Safina parties was formed to take the responsibility of establishing a permanent secretariat, and devising a formula for fielding one presidential candidate. Richard Leakey was appointed executive director of the committee’s secretariat. Serious business! But it did not work. Why? Personal political ambition.

The formula this time in 2017 is less complex but more problematic. The plan is to postpone the issue until the very last minute when Raila declares himself the flag bearer— and then the endless airing of dirty laundry, and lamentations about betrayal begin.

Let’s end with a little true story to explore the fourth reason. One fine evening, three men got into an old taxi and slithered their way down Mama Ngina Drive to State House, Mombasa. The year was 2007. Their secret mission was to meet Kibaki and negotiate the sale of Kalonzo’s unsuspecting Kamba voters in exchange for the vice presidency. As we know now, this meeting was successful.

Because of personal political ambition, these kinds of clandestine night-time brokering scenes will repeat themselves multiple times before polling day on August 8. Operatives will hold covert meetings to negotiate a Luhya bloc here in exchange for some Cabinet positions, a Kalenjin voting bloc there for ambassadorial slots, a Luo bloc here in exchange for Treasury and a possible Prime Minister position.

Let’s face it. This is the stark reality of our ethnic politics. And these are the calculations that were running through the Opposition leaders heads, even as they raised their hands in an awkward display of unity at Bomas last Wednesday.

The writer is a Ph.D candidate in political Economy at SMC University, Switzerland and research fellow at the Fort Hall School of Government.