Raila Odinga’s costly slip of tongue on ICC

President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy President William Ruto must consider themselves very lucky people. Until last week, the political star of the Opposition coalition was on the rise and the country entertained the possibility of an opposition alliance as happened in 2002.

Then, the Opposition Rainbow alliance trounced Kanu, ending its 40-year hold on power. There has been talk of a  National Super Alliance (NASA) to face Jubilee in next year’s election.

There are reports that the new development caused so much jitters within the Jubilee Party, forcing the President to start a countrywide tour essentially, ushering in the new campaign season earlier than expected. I am not sure about that.

The plot was going on well until Raila Odinga brought in the issue of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in an apparent response to Mr Kenyatta’s utterance during Jamhuri Day lighting a political firestorm.

Surely speaking, I know Kenyans had already forgotten the ICC issue and were now judging Mr Kenyatta and his deputy on their performance and merit.

Not about the supposed works of foreign forces with sinister motives out to determine the outcome of an electoral contest in a sovereign country.

Even within their backyard in Central Kenya and the Rift Valley, many voters were demanding to know what happened to promises made in 2013.

Where are the 500,000-a-year jobs that were to be created? What happened to the 10,000 km tarmac roads that could have transformed the country?

What happened to Galana-Kulalu irrigation scheme? What happened of the 5,000MW electricity... Who stole Eurobond money?

What about the billions that vanished at NYS and now the Ministry of Health? By all accounts, things were getting real tough for Uhuruto. Perhaps they were also concerned about what was happening around the world.

The incumbent John Mahama had just lost in Ghana after Gambia’s Yahya Jammeh was sent packing.

In the US, the public, unhappy with the status quo, gave a stunning verdict of Hillary Clinton when they picked billionaire businessman Donald Trump as president.

The Opposition could take comfort that the public had grown weary of the current leadership. And Kenya would not be an exception.

Then, quite effortlessly, Mr Odinga hands them the initiative once again. Any time the ICC issue is mentioned, it not only ignites the passion to press on, but also fortunately for them, it rouses sympathy at least from within their ethnic backyard.

I can bet Mr Ruto was losing a large part of the support he enjoyed within the Rift Valley until Mr Odinga blurted: “Uhuru and Ruto should have been jailed ... Kenya will stay in the ICC whether Uhuru or Ruto likes it or not.”

Did someone forget to tell Raila that mentioning ICC is counter-productive and only serves to reinvigorate the Uhuruto camp?

Anyone who watched the Kalonzo Musyoka presidential launch where the utterances were made knows that Raila had veered off-script when he pronounced what could amount to political suicide. I could see his speech writer’s horror.

A former PS in former President Moi’s government told me of a minister who always veered off-script, with disastrous consequences.
“He never stuck to his speech... and when he went off-script, he would for sure say something that would embarrass all of us. The pain is that... that stuck more than the contents of the speech,” the PS told me once.

In politics, victimhood is a currency and the sympathy that comes with it is a glue around which one can rally their support base.

And lessons abound about how contests were won because the people sided with the underdog.

The 2013 General Election is a case in point. Now, don’t get me wrong. There are those who are convinced the vote was stolen.

I am not one of those. So the fact that holds is that a pair facing crimes against humanity got elected to the Presidency. And the least someone like Mr Odinga needed to do was stir up emotions around the ICC.

The voters could be disappointed with the way the country is governed, but things that arouse emotions go deep.
Even in The Gambia, we have seen that the ICC is a contentious issue.

When the outgoing Gambian President Yahya Jammeh conceded defeat, the President-elect Adama Barrow, (Some Somali Clans in Northern Kenya say he is one of their lost sons due to the name similarities), apparently shot himself in the foot when he announced that he would charge the outgoing president with corruption and send him to The Hague to face the ICC.

Probably this was said in a fit of excitement. Yet that could cost him the presidency as Jammeh digs in, refusing to quit the presidential palace.

Mr Jammeh has now rescinded the decision to concede defeat and has now refused to hand over power.
Anarchists will side with Mr Jammeh, no doubt.

I bet that won’t happen in Kenya, but it is enough to make Mr Odinga watch his tongue the next time he stands behind a microphone.