What Kenyans can learn from Trump surprise victory

Coast based artist Zuber Bakhrani make final touches to a potrait of Republican presidential elect Donald Trump at his Mwembe Tayari studios, November 10, 2016. The artist had earlier started painting a potrait of former Democratic US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton but on noticing that she was trailing, he changed his artwork to that of Trump. The potrait will be placed along the busy Moi Avenue for members of the public to view the new president of the most powerful nation (USA). [PHOTO BY GIDEON MAUNDU/STANDARD.

Can you allow me to brag first? I was on a train from Frankfurt, Germany to Bonn when news trickled down that Donald Trump had won the 2016 USA presidential elections. Leticia, a Ghanaian lady travelling with us reacted, “it’s really a man’s world”. The rest in the group were quiet, most thought it was a hoax.

In Bonn, media reports confirmed his victory with some German TV stations showing his victory speech live. To most Kenyans, Trump should not have won. They wanted a handover to Hilary Clinton from their son, Barack Obama.

On social media, Kenyans in the USA desperately urged their friends to vote for Clinton. It seemed they sensed Clinton’s support was ebbing away. We now have President-elect Donald Trump. Why did Trump win? Why did opinion polls get it wrong? First, it was Trump himself. He campaigned single handedly, said what all Americans feared to say, fought with everyone including his own staff, and was able to deflect all accusations. He reached into the heart and soul of the American people, invoking America’s greatness best espoused by another former actor and republican, Ronald Reagan.

Like Reagan, Trump ability to communicate with the ordinary Americans was key to his victory. There was no intellectualisation; he knew what mattered to ordinary Americans, the jobs, the immigration and American greatness. And I bet he knew enough about Brexit.

I talked to a few people about Trump Victory. A Professor at University of Bonn, who is American but been in German for over 40 years suggests that too many contestants in the primaries left the voters divided with White Anglo-Saxons and Protestants (WASP) turning to Donald Trump.

The working whites, seems to have been angered by apparent decline of America both economically and politically. Recall, Trump kept talking about China and Iraq war.

Democrats, he suggested, took victory for granted. They did not ignite, the passion republican ignited. They knew Clinton was not popular and adding Obama to campaign for him may have been interpreted as a sign of desperation. And no one want to say it loudly, the mainstream white Americans that Trump appealed to, did not like a woman president; may be Leticia was right.

Andrea Koikai, a German who loves Diani beach thinks that Trump Victory might embolden other right wing political parties that are dormant in Europe and elsewhere. Dr Wilfred Z?rner a don at technical university of Ingolstadt hopes Trump will not implement what he suggested in his campaign trail. There are signs he might going by his comment on Obamacare.

Z?rner notes that EU is not doing well, and Brexit was just one sign of that. Trump might have given EU the motivation to come together again. One problem with EU, Z?rner farther suggests is that the younger generation may not recall the border checks, and several currencies.

But there were other reasons why Trump won. The Americans may have been tired of Democrats and wanted a change. Trump was the real change.

Americans may have been angered by prospects of a dynasty in the politics. They started by voting out Jeb Bush. Democrats never learned from that, another indicator they were not in touch with the political reality.

It is possible that through Obama the WASP felt they were finally losing power. They bid their time to return America to the “core owners”. Remember, the birthers who claimed Obama was not born in the USA? It was interesting how Trump kept reminding African-Americans that democrats have forgotten them.

Why should we be surprised that Americans voted for Trump? Did they not vote in Obama, against all expectations? Americans will keep surprising you. Just watch President Trump.

Needless to say, Republican prospect of being out power for 12 years energized them and they left nothing to chance. The Trump win may have been based on his successful portrayal of Hilary Clinton as untrustworthy. It will never be known why FBI reported that they were investigating Clinton emails again. That might have been the watershed in the 2016 elections.

Most may discount this, the image of secret service agents getting Trump from the podium during a campaign, may have angered his supporters to vote in large numbers. Any lessons for Kenya?

The USA elections clearly showed that understanding the grassroots (masinani) is the key to victory, not models and elite analysis. Will Trumpism become the new road to political power? Will Kenyan political contestants try that approach next year?

The markets and your anger will settle and come to terms with Trump’s presidency, sooner than you think. What is in no doubt is that Trump presidency will change American politics and economics, if time and reality allow. The reverberations will be heard beyond the American borders. But take heart, it highly unlikely that planeloads of Kenyans will start landing at JKIA once Trump is sworn in on January 20, 2017.