Where the pollsters went wrong

NAIROBI: These are tough times for political pollsters. In recent elections in Israel, Britain and Poland pre-election polls failed spectacularly to predict election results, sending shock waves through entire nations on election night. Now many research pollsters are analysing these fiascos in search of ways to do better in the future.

 

In Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives won a clear victory on May 7 after polls had predicted a near tie with Labour, generating expectations of a hung parliament. A day after the election, the British Polling Council launched an independent inquiry into the polls' inaccuracies.