Exactly what is Kibaki’s game plan for his succession?

By Mwenda Njoka

Watching President Kibaki conduct his last Jamhuri Day last Wednesday as the President of the Republic of Kenya I found myself wondering and musing over many issues around the murky succession politics.

What was going through the President’s mind as he warily and gingerly climbed into that ceremonial Land Rover? What was the President thinking as he inspected what may be the last Guard of Honour as the country’s Commander-in-Chief? Was the President plotting and calculating how he would like to influence his succession?

As the President went to take his seat at the VIP dais, I noticed one Prof Nick Wanjohi comfortably settled a few seats to the President’s right and something struck me. And a new question came to my mind. Is political succession purely about voters deciding who becomes their next President or there are more players – known and unknown – who pull the strings with each pushing a different agenda?

Besides the voters, there are other equally critical players – call them stakeholders – who often want to have the final say on who takes over the reins of leadership as the incumbent vacates.

Let’s focus on one most significant, but often underrated group of stakeholders – the Public Service. We are talking the top echelon of Civil Service such as permanent secretaries, top officers in the Intelligence Community as well as top military commanders.

Theoretically, the Public Service, the Military and the Intelligence Community are supposed to be politically neutral without a preference to any politician or political alignment. But that is just theory.

 In the real world, the Public Service, the Military and the Intelligence Community are often as political – but operating beneath the surface as the politicians themselves (if not more!)

After all, these are officials who are already snugly ensconced in places of comfort, power and influence. To them, a change in the status quo means an unwelcome disruption of their comfort zones. Naturally humans do not welcome change especially if it interferes with their comfy lives. So, if you are a top civil servant – say at Harambee House or Treasury – who wants to continue riding the gravy train and enjoying the Fruits of Independence after March 4, who among the probable presidential candidates are you more inclined to back?

Of course someone who appears least likely to tumble your gravy train, in other words your preferred candidate will be what Englishmen call “a safe pair of hands.” So for the Establishment (read top echelons of Public Service, the Generals and the Intelligence Community), the ‘ideal’ candidate for the presidency will have to be someone who they can trust to keep things as they are – or as the French say – Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose (the more things change, the more things remain the same). On the other hand, there are other players in the political arena who want change like yesterday, so to speak. These are the citizens who feel the need for real change, not just a mere change of guard with the underlying principle being the Swahili saying: Msitu tofauti lakini nyani ni wale wale (the forest has changed but the monkeys are the same old crop).

So, between all the possible presidential aspirants – Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi, Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua and even Prof James ole Kiyiapi – which candidates represent the status quo – remember Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose – and which ones represent a clean break with the past?

Which candidates represent a ‘safe pair of hands’ for the Public Service mandarins, the military and Intelligence honchos – the often hidden hand in politics? 

And which candidates represent real change – not a safety net for the Public Service mandarins and Security honchos? These are the underlying dynamics that – in no small way – always influence, for better or worse, the outcome of high stakes elections. And you underrate the hidden hand at your own risk.

 

The writer is Managing Editor of The Standard On Sunday