Why Oparanya could be Raila's preferred successor in ODM

**Former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and ODM leader Raila Odinga.** [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard]

ODM leader Raila Odinga has remained tight-lipped on his preferred successor even as campaigns for his African Union Commission chairperson bid intensify.

However, despite concealing his intentions, pundits believe Raila could be grooming a possible successor in the Orange party.

A section of political analysts believe former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya could be the ODM leader's surprise choice for a successor.

Mr Oparanya, who is the ODM deputy party leader and a confidant of Raila is excited about the prospects of leading one of the largest political outfits enjoying massive support across the country.

Asked whether he believes his party boss could pass the baton to him, the former governor said he is well prepared to steer ODM to greater heights.

“I have what it takes to make ODM a force to reckon with and steer it to victory in 2027 polls and beyond,” said Oparanya.

Raila’s exit could be a blessing in disguise for the former governor who has served his party boss with dedication and loyalty.

“I am banking on my vast experience in politics and my loyalty to ‘Baba’ (Raila) and the party, these factors will endear me to both ODM and Azimio members and leadership,” said Oparanya in a recent interview.

“My loyalty to Raila cannot be overemphasized, I took over the deputy party position in 2012 and I have the requisite experience to manage the affairs of the party effectively should Raila clinch the AUC chairmanship,” he added.

The former governor served as Economic Planning Minister in the grand coalition government under the late President Mwai Kibaki. He represented Butere constituency in Parliament for 10 years before he was elected Kakamega governor for two terms.

"It is an opportunity for us, as leaders to grow having gained a lot of experience and mentorship from Raila. We want to achieve what our good and able leader has always dreamed of, to make ODM stronger,” said Oparanya.

According to political analyst Dr Barrack Muluka, the former governor's closeness to Raila could be a telltale sign that he could be the opposition chief’s choice for a successor in the Orange Party.

“We have seen them together in various events and meetings, that is a clear signal that Raila is nurturing Oparanya for the task ahead, it is an open secret,” said Muluka.

He argued that it would be impossible for Raila to settle on former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho who has been missing in action since the ODM party leader lost to President William Ruto in the 2022 General Election.

“When Raila’s agenda to become president aborted, it aborted with Joho, it would be an opportunistic return for the former governor in case he shows interest in the party leadership,” argued Muluka.

The sentiments are echoed by lawyer-cum-political commentator Martin Oloo who believes Joho’s focus has shifted to making money and he has no interest in politics.

“All signs show Raila could hand Oparanya the party leadership, they have been hopping from one place to another together and that is a clear pointer to where Raila’s heart is,” said Oloo.

“Being the second in command, Oparanya is likely to succeed Raila. Mr Oparanya would rely on the sound party structures to steady the ship and steer ODM ahead after taking over the reins,” he added.

The lawyer however advised ODM Nyanza’s bastion would rather go slow on the succession politics “for the region to remain intact or else they stand to lose.”

Oloo and Muluka believe it would be easier for Oparanya to galvanize Nyanza and Western in case he receives Raila’s endorsement.

“If Raila endorses Oparanya, his supporters will shift their allegiance to the former governor, that goes without saying because Raila commands a huge following,” said Muluka.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Kakamega Woman Representative Elsie Muhanda and a host of ODM politicians from Western believe the former governor is the right person to succeed Raila in ODM.

“The focus is on our brother Oparanya who has fought through thick and thin for the party. He should be the one to take over the party leadership, " said Osotsi.

The senator said the Western vote-rich bloc had stuck with the ODM party for close to two decades.

“As a region, we have stood by Raila and the party for many years and we want Oparanya at the helm because Baba is guaranteed the AUC job," said Osotsi.

Another leader who believes Oparanya ought to succeed Raila is Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa. “We continue to support Raila's bid to chair AU and as he leaves, we hope Oparanya can take over,” said Barasa.

However, there are leaders who believe Oparanya cannot manage a political party and Raila would make a mistake entrusting him with the Orange Party.