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After ICC President Uhuru Kenyatta can do away with Deputy President William Ruto

By Alexander Chagema | April 21st 2016

The independence party, Kenya African National Union (Kanu) once vowed it would rule the country for 100 years. Of course, born of complacency and hubris, its stalwarts' projections did not take into account the element of fate, and the plan unravelled.

In the 2002 General Election, Kanu was defeated and went ahead to concede defeat. There was no room to wriggle and cry foul. Kanu's longevity and optimism must have rubbed off on some of its insiders, who deserted it and teamed up to form the Jubilee, which went on to win the 2013 elections.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto, once Kanu die-hards, are not so greedy. For them, 20 years would suffice after which the Opposition, salivating at the prospects of sitting at the high table, can have their fill. On this they are more considerate than Kanu, which wanted 100 years.

By now, many have come to the inevitable conclusion that Jubilee Alliance is synonymous with President Kenyatta and his deputy Ruto.

Once the political appetites of President Kenyatta and his deputy have been sated, what follows is inconsequential to the two politicians. Like many others, a political party is a vehicle to power.

This brings me to the hypothesis that the Jubilee union is basically one of fragile convenience, not based on any political or national ideology.

From the outset, it seemed like the two politicians were only united by their woes at the International Criminal Court.

After the initial shock of being branded suspects, they picked themselves up, exuding admirable confidence that seeped down to their loyal acolytes.

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That confidence paid dividends for although the crimes against humanity charges have actually not been withdrawn, there is absolutely no way new evidence can be collected to make any charges hold.

Sadly, those who got maimed in the 2008 post-election violence, those who lost friends, families and property will continue hurting more because our local justice system does not offer them recourse. Only God and time will heal their pain.

If after eight years people are still living in sordid camps, the much-hyped compensation is nothing but empty rhetoric.

International Criminal Court prosecutor Fatou Bensouda would do well to throw in the towel and find something useful to do; the trail is cold and obliterated.

The perpetrators of the evil have long since stopped holding their breath. Even as we are being told to forget and move on, there is little goodwill to alleviate the suffering of those affected.

Despite oft-repeated assurances there are no more internally displaced persons in camps, some desperate Kenyans are staying in patched-up tents in camps, completely forgotten.

All said, I believe the two needed to come together to help them battle the international court. And damned if they did not succeed!

Rather than be on the defensive, they went on the offensive and threw everything they had at the ICC. That bluster disoriented the prosecution and threw the process into a spin.

Collectively for Uhuru and Ruto, there was convenience in preaching peace to their respective communities. The political rivalry between two communities has always threatened to break into violence during elections.

For once since 1992, the two communities in parts of Rift Valley did not fight in 2013.

But more for individual convenience, Uhuru Kenyatta needed the Rift Valley to boost his numbers and Ruto was on hand to do deliver them.

For 2017, Mr Ruto is important to President Kenyatta, but whether he delivers or not, he is very likely to become expendable.

I am persuaded to think so because one, besides President Kenyatta, there is nobody else within Jubilee that Mr Ruto would pledge alliance to or openly declare to be a bosom buddy.

Secondly, there are those in TNA, or closely associated to the party, nursing presidential ambitions.

They have the muscle, both financial and human, to actualise their valid dreams.

If there is a community in Kenya that votes as a block and is as closely knit as can be, it is the Kikuyu.

The downside of it is that they have always protected their interests by overwhelmingly voting their own; Jomo Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta.

They will not fall over themselves to accommodate Mr Ruto should someone from the house of Mumbi signal intent.

If, therefore, Mr Ruto is entirely dependent on reciprocal action to get residency in State House, a nasty surprise could await him in 2022.

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