Report indicts African Union for failing to prevent, resolve conflicts

Former IGAD executive secretary Mahboub Maalim and Pan African Agenda Institute chairman Mehari Maru during the release of the report. [James Wanzala, Standard]

The African Union (AU) has failed in its mandate of preventing, managing and resolving of conflicts on the continent.

This is according to a new report by the Pan African Agenda Institute (PAAI) released on February 10, 2026 in Nairobi.

The AU, through its African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), operates under a broad mandate centered on preventing, managing, and resolving conflicts.

The report, which sought to answer the question on whether AU is fit for purpose, is the first one that sought to gauge the performance of the mandate that falls under Peace and Security, which is among the four key objectives in addition to political affairs, economic integration and Africa's global representation and voice.

“And we are saying, especially on prevention and intervention, it has failed. And the report shows there are numbers in terms of deaths, displacement and destruction of economy,” said Prof. Mehari Maru, chairman of Pan African Agenda Institute after the release of the report.

He added: “It shows that indeed the African Union didn't do its job. Why was is not able to do that job is another question. We give example of ongoing war in Sudan, Rwandan genocide in 1994, Tigray in Ethiopia, Libya, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sahel and other places.”

Prof Maru said it's unfortunate that some of the conflicts have been solved by international partners like United States of America like in the conflict between DRC and Rwanda and not AU.

He blamed the reason for failure to member states, saying they are the biggest culprits because they are part of the conflicts themselves and not the AU itself.

“And the reason is because the nature of the states has not changed at all. The competition for state power based on ethnic, regional and religious identity or beyond that for resource accumulation, is becoming a big cause of the states’ failure and the integrity of the states affected," said Prof Maru.

In Africa, conflict-driven fatalities, displacement and economic destruction have reached staggering levels and are surging.

According to the report, between 2004-2008 till 2019- 2023, conflicts have led to 414,000 fatalities(an increase of 841 percent), corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12 percent over the two-decade span, with states involvement being highest between 2021 to 2022.

Of the 153 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) globally in 2014–2024, 76.3 million originate from Africa, constituting 50 percent of the global total.

“Between 2014 and 2024, Africa also produced 81 million refugees and asylum seekers. The data on total internal displacement from 2014 to 2024 reveals distinct regional trends and an overall escalation in forced displacement globally. Internal displacement in Africa demonstrates a consistent upward trajectory, rising from approximately 4 million IDPs in 2014 to over 11 million in 2024: a nearly threefold increase over the decade,” it said.

For instance in Sudan currently, where Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is fighting with the army, it is facing the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 13.6 million people forcibly displaced as of early 2026.

This includes over 10 million IDPs and nearly 4 million fleeing to neighbouring countries, with children making up over half of those.

The conflicts, it said have had negative impact on the continent’s countries' economies like Egypt at USD676.6 billion from 2019 to 2023 and DRC USD 53.1billion.

The report had five key findings among them; the current international and African peace and security frameworks have failed to prevent genocidal conflicts, the world is experiencing a dangerous interregnum between the dying post-World War 2 and the emerging new system.

Three, interference by extra-regional actors has escalated into proxy wars that have undermined the integrity of the state in multiple African countries, the AU’s inability to prevent wars or manage inter-state tensions raises questions about the effectiveness of pan-African peace and security architectures.

Finally, extra-African actors have largely taken over regional peace initiatives, with the AU and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) relegated to secondary roles.

Amb Mahboub Maalim, former executive secretary of IGAD, which is among the RECs which has Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda, blamed lack of unified regional leadership that disciplines external actors to be among the reasons for failure.

“Because the region spoke with one voice, external actors, whether great powers, middle powers or regional partners had no choice but to engage through IGAD. Why? Because the region set the framework,” said Amb Maalim, citing how IGAD worked during his tenure. 

He added: “External actors pursued their interests but always in dialogue with, and in difference to, regional consensus. I rarely witnessed outright imposition. Differences existed, of course but they were manageable; precisely because the region had clarity about what it wanted and how it proposed to get there.”

Amb Maalim, a former Senator for Mandera County, Chairman of the Senate Finance and Budget Committee and Assistant Minister (Electricity and Renewable Energy) added that during his time at IGAD, collective management of spoilers both internal and external was possible because of consensus.

“Whether spoilers emerged from with the region or outside it, there was a shared understanding of how to respond. The region did not always succeed, but it had mechanisms, political backing and legitimacy to act,” said Amb Maalim.

He added: “Today, many of these capabilities have eroded. We now see increased tensions and wars among IGAD member states, which have become deeply internationalised. We see fragmentation rather than coordination. Most critically, we see the absence of a unifying regional leadership capable of articulating a shared vision, one that offers hope and direction both to regional actors and to external partners.”

The report now recommends four things among them transforming the AU, the nature of states towards states with multiple systems, ensuring the primacy of domestic politics and employing a triple geopolitical strategy of dynamic, pragmatic and unified voice.

Prof Maru said they will again do continuous reports on the three remaining key objectives of AU and launch each of them at different countries.