Do demonstrations make economic sense?

In the last one month or so, Kenya has been rocked by demonstrations against the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). The demonstrations reflect political divisions.

There were no demonstrations reported in Central and Rift valley, the bedrocks of Jubilee. The argument advanced by demonstrators is that IEBC cannot be trusted to conduct 2017 elections and must go.

Police launch a teargas at demonstrators during CORD IEBC demonstration in Kibera on Monday 23/05/16.PHOTO:BONIFACE OKENDO

Others suggest loudly that by refusing to make OKOA Kenya referendum happen IEBC had to pay the price. It has also been whispered that if IEBC leaves office, it will indicate that 2013 polls were not fair. Another argument is this crisis is deliberate, an attempt to shift elections to December 2017. Both sides of political divide have a lot at stake. EIBC is grass as elephants fight.

What is not in doubt is that the opposition got a rallying cry which quickly gained traction with other parties such as KANU joining. I need a refund from KANU for forcing me to join the party to get an ID! We quickly forgot about the divisions among the ODM principals and the victory of ICC suspects.

The opposition does not want IEBC reforms through Parliament, they are outnumbered. Demonstrations seem to be the shortest route to achieve political objectives. No convoluted arguments, no feet dragging and no postponements.

Political demonstrations make a lot of political sense by expediting achievement of political objectives. Demonstrations ended KANU’s dream of a 100 year reign, though in the privacy of my thoughts, KANU still rules. Which prominent politicians in Kenya, from President Uhuru to Raila have no KANU blood?

Enough digression. Do demonstrations make economic sense? Most people will quickly shout that property is destroyed during demonstrations and investors shy away. Rents on University Way may also go down if demonstrations continue. But that is just part of the story.

Demonstrations dent the image of a country. Remember media reports and reality often differs. Perception influence investors and tourists more than reality. Perception becomes reality when reinforced regularly particularly by citizens themselves.

Is it surprising that TZ and Ethiopia are attracting more FDI than us. Others suggest in whispers that reduced inflows from these two sources and subsequent economic decline will change voting patterns in 2017.

The hoi polloi

Let’s delve deeper, demonstrators have an economic agenda beyond occupying the streets. Real political power stands on an economic pedestal. That is why in both private and public sector, only a few have the authority to incur expenditure (AIE). There are exceptions like mother Teresa or Mandela whose moral power far exceeded economic power.

The demonstrators see beyond teargas. They believe that if IEBC would be fair, they would ascend to power and get economic dividends, from government jobs, board membership, contracts and may I say in whispers, a chance to “eat”. Some demonstrators were insiders in government and know it.

In a country like Kenya, with no oil or a big national industry like auto in Japan, government remains the biggest employer and source of business. It is no wonder devolution was so welcome, more got into the government and its perks. I am still looking for a Vitz owned by the county or national government.

It gets more interesting. Demonstrators are usually the hoi polloi the wanjikus and a few middle class. They demonstrate on behalf of the privileged upper-class. Wanjiku believes either naively or in reality that she will share the spoils. Really? How many Kenyans have shifted to a higher indifference curve as we shift through regimes from KANU to Jubilee?

Demonstrations make a lot of economic sense to those fathering their political interests on both sides of political divide. The demonstrators are often like rungus; use then keep till another rat appears. The sad thing about demonstrations is that the key front-liners, those who inhale teargas or are maimed or die are the losers. Once the political objectives of the demonstrations are achieved, they are sidelined.

Economics and politics are different. One is short term, the other is long term. Who benefitted most from Mau Mau and Multipartism in Kenya? From South African freedom demonstrations? From American civil rights movements? From Arab spring?

Some will quickly label me apologist; am just being realistic. From one demo to the next, the hoi polloi gets a chance to vent their anger, then sober up to the realities of their miseries. Those who have the highest standards of living in this country were not demonstrating. Maybe they have no cause. The demonstrators rightly dream of a better life.

But the route to such a life is not always through short cuts like demonstrations. At times, it takes generations and patience. Any demonstration that has no economic dividends for the demonstrators is not worth.

To some extent demonstrations are a reflection of economic exclusion, which sadly in Kenya rhymes with political exclusion. Any demonstrations leading to a more inclusive society, where meritocracy reigns and rewards exist for honest work would make economic sense. Are we there in Kenya?