Kenya has shown world Somalia can be saved

Juma Kwayera

Initially perceived as mission impossible, Kenya’s military forays into war-ravaged Somalia has finally convinced the doubting world that the Horn of Africa nation is salvageable.

Dismissed as a reactive to increased threats by Somali pirates on ships headed to Mombasa Port and Al Shabaab militiamen’s abductions of foreigners on Kenyan territory, the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) were given little chance of winning.

But pessimism is slowly giving way to optimism with the Western powers now showing interest in helping end the conflict. War experts and strategists say the Somalia Conference in London that ended yesterday is a belated acknowledgement of the successes of KDF and Ethiopian army, which ventured into Somalia without endorsement of the UN Security Council (UNSC).

"It is clear that the West is scrambling for some kind of credit. Kenya was criticised as venturing into war without taking into account the scale of the operations and lacking an exit strategy," says Capt Simiyu Werunga, head of African Centre for Security and Strategic Studies.

Early this week UNSC passed a resolution paving the way for the re-hatting of the Kenya troops in Somalia, which will see the 2,500 soldiers join the African Union Mission in Somalia.

The weekly newsmagazine, The Africa Confidential, in its special edition released on the eve of the London conference, accuses militarily powerful countries and the UN of neglecting Somalia.

The same view is shared by Werunga who says that it is now apparent Kenya made the right decision to attack Al Shabaab whose strength has been significantly reduced following the choking of the Kismayu supply line.

Opiyo Ododa, a military expert, concurs. Dr Opiyo who is on secondment by the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom), told The Standard On Saturday that KDF’s rapid success has shown the West that Al Shabaab can be dealt with conclusively, hence the conference.

The observation comes at a time experts in international security are also questioning the UN Security Council and the West’s indifference to a conflict that has claimed more than two million people.

Notes The Africa Confidential, "Neither Nairobi nor Addis Ababa saw it fit to tell the UN that they were sending their armies into Somalia, and have no interest in co-ordinating their plans with the UN."

Ododa says the precision and professionalism so far exhibited by the Kenyan forces convinced the UN Security Council to change its mandate on peacekeeping in Somalia.

The UN resolution gives the troops the mandate to enforce peace across the country.

Essentially, it gives KDF and its allies the muscle to clamp down Al Shabaab in areas where they are a threat to peace. "In essence, therefore, the re-hatting of Kenyan troops will increase the impetus and the professionalism necessary to exterminate Al Shabaab. That is why the UN, through resolution 2036 (2012), has accepted to increase the number of troops from the current 12,000 uniformed personnel to 17,731 troops," says Ododa.

Amisom and the TFG recaptured Mogadishu from Al Shabaab in August last year, two months before Kenya went in. They have also conducted major attacks north of the capital, opening up the area enough to allow visits by foreign dignitaries.

Notably, during time the KDF have been inside Somalia, the country was using its own resources to neutralise a threat the US has not intervened directly. The US, however, started a drone-bombing campaign in Somalia in June last year, four months before Kenya’s incursion, conducted from secret bases in Manda, Kenya and the Seychelles. They have also been providing logistical support for ‘Operation Linda Nchi’ from a base in Arba Minch, Ethiopia).

Capt Werunga observes, "The London conference has the potential of taking credit away from Kenya for having methodically executed a military operation that now promises to restore stability in Somalia."