Political leaders should be wary of sycophants

On Raila’s part, he has less of Kenyatta’s problem in that he has a much more direct relationship with voters across the country. His regional lieutenants help, of course. But for most of them they need Raila more than he needs them. This arrangement also comes with problems.PHOTO: COURTESY

African presidents almost never lose elections. The operative word here is “almost.” In actual fact, a number of them have due to glaring pre-election blunders and a lack of information on the realities on the ground. Take Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia. In the early 1990s he realised that he was facing strong opposition from the trade unions and the newly formed Movement for Multiparty Democracy, (MMD). But his lieutenants assured him that all was well. That is, until the bottom fell out and there was mass walkouts from the party leading to his eventual loss in 1991.

The key lesson to be observed from the Kaunda experience is that those closest to the president typically have the most to lose by telling the president the truth. They are typically the ones who squander campaign funds.

 They typically do not do their homework with regard to strategy and implementation of an electoral agenda. And lastly, they often are unwanted by voters on account of their revealed failure in office. Incumbent presidents, or senior politicians, therefore constantly face the problem of trying to figure out which one of their subordinates is actually telling them the truth or, at a basic level, even knows what they are talking about. In the current political environment, President Uhuru Kenyatta, Deputy President William Ruto, and Prime Minister Raila Odinga all face this problem.

Which of their lieutenants should they trust? All of them have every reason to suggest that all is well on the ground. But the three face serious risk of losing next August if they do not monitor their sycophantic supporters closely. Kenyatta’s and Ruto’s fates are closely linked, so let us look at them jointly.

First, the idea of the “tyranny of numbers” will not apply in 2017. The election next August will be won in the swing areas of upper eastern, Western region, southwestern Nyanza, and in the counties of Kericho and Bomet in the north rift. The Jubilee Party would be ill advised to sit-pretty assuming that these regions are locked in. They are not. It might be important to remember that in the last election we avoided a runoff by the breadth of a hair. A low turnout in these areas, or a slight move towards Raila would spell trouble for Jubilee.

Notice that these regions might be classified as Ruto’s backyard, at least within Jubilee. In some sense, therefore, Ruto holds the key to Kenyatta’s reelection. Two obvious questions follow. First, how strong is Ruto’s support in these regions? And second, should Kenyatta rely on Ruto’s mobilisation strategies and skills or should he engage these regions directly?

The answer to the first question is likely too undetermined for Kenyatta’s liking. On the second question, engaging directly with voters might come with the risk of alienating Ruto and his supporters. Ruto’s importance to Kenyatta is that he brings a voting bloc. If Kenyatta engages this bloc directly, it diminishes Ruto’s importance. Therein lies Kenyatta’s re-election dilemma.

On Raila’s part, he has less of Kenyatta’s problem in that he has a much more direct relationship with voters across the country. His regional lieutenants help, of course. But for most of them they need Raila more than he needs them. This arrangement also comes with problems.

Because they fear the voters in their own backyards, pro-Raila elites in different regions are less likely to mobilise potential voters to the same extent that Raila wants. That is why many of them are busy begging for negotiated nominations, instead of facing voters at the ballot. A terribly managed nomination is likely to suppress turnout come next August, or even shift support towards Jubilee.

Sycophantic elite supporters are useful as surrogates. But they can also lead to failure because they have strong incentives to lie to the boss about the situation on the ground. To Kenyatta, Ruto, and Raila: be wary of sycophants.