Roads alone will not improve lives

Kenya’s infrastructure roll-out has been hailed as one of the best in Africa.

We have sunk about Sh5 trillion shillings into roads alone in the past 15 years, but only about Sh1 trillion on agriculture.

So what has been the socio-economic impact of this massive investment in roads? How many people have been lifted out of poverty?

Are we better off in other dimensions like security and national unity? Generally, are we happier because we have more paved roads than Uganda?

One thing should be clear: roads are important for economic development. 

But they are not the only input. The notion that new roads alone will directly improve welfare is nonsense.

For one, there is no empirical evidence of the socio-economic impact on the people of Kiambu or Thika for example on account of an improved Thika Road.

Property prices may have hit the roof, but this is also because the land market is poorly regulated. And this is happening everywhere.

And the original idea of Thika Road was to improve traffic flow into the city but still jams are extending to Kasarani. Why?

Because expanding a road alone cannot fix traffic jams. Without supplementary physical and non-physical inputs, the impact of such projects will always be limited.

Supplementary physical inputs would include improvement of feeder roads and alternative transport systems.

Note the increasing chaos around the underpasses in Ruiru, Githurai and Kimbo.

This is made worse by the non-physical factors such as indiscipline by motorists and the public.

Now, why is it so difficult to have a tram system or Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) in Nairobi? Addis Ababa has a brand-new light rail system. It is a must for any modern city.

Look at the economics of Thika Road. It gobbled up about Sh38 billion shillings. It continues to guzzle Sh1 billion in maintenance annually.

Recently, the Government said there are plans to put a light railway in the city soon. Don’t swear on that.

The tram system will cost about Sh18 billion. Wouldn’t it have been more sensible to put a tram way along Thika Road and use the balance to expand the road without all that madoido?

In economics, roads are a factor of production.

A road is part of ‘capital’. Other factors are land, technology,  human resources and entrepreneurship. Then why are we fixated on roads at the expense of other inputs?

There are two reasons. Firstly, roads offer excellent ‘pork barrel’ projects. In the US, pork barrel projects are implemented using public money purely to please voters and politicians.

That is not a problem in the US but in a polarised country like ours, the danger of regions feeling left out and the resultant resentment is real.

This was one of the contributing factors to the 2008 violence.

Secondly, roads are rich opportunities for kickbacks. Imagine the cement, machinery, ballast, soil, road furniture, water, tar, labour, pipes, traffic rights, road markings, labour and land to be supplied by someone.

Tram ways may only need a bit of ground preparation and in some cases, the rails are placed on the existing tarmac.

You buy the coaches and voila, the avenues for rent seeking are drastically reduced. That is not how things work in Kenya.

And then there is a little mater: How do you expect a modern tramway to serve Mathare, Kibera and Kariobangi, places where it is most needed?

True, Greenfield infrastructure open up hitherto undeveloped areas.

Just see how malls and gated communities are popping up along the by-passes.

But without further incentives to encourage manufacturing, all this is an illusion of development.

What are we manufacturing locally? These malls are just outlets for Chinese goods.

Visit any mall and count how many local products are in the counters.

Safe bread and milk, everything, from cultural products like books to simple things like tooth picks and underwear are imported.

We are neck deep in debt and we borrow not to prompt local productivity but to feed an ever-increasing appetite for imported consumer goods.

Integrated approach to development is pursued when the different factors of production are constantly improved and employed.

We may build the most advanced road network but without sound agricultural policies and favourable credit facilities to encourage local manufacturing, new roads will remain just ego monuments.