Will World Cup land in Amsterdam or Madrid?

By Tony Ngare

This Fifa World Cup has retained its constant trait of throwing twists and surprises at every opportunity.

On Tuesday, when Netherlands edged Uruguay to qualify for the World Cup finale the third time, I assumed my title would be: Holland vs Deutschland. However, the damn Paul, the psychic octopus still enjoying celebrity status with a stroke of eight tentacles, rubbished my title. That’s why you may find my title today a bit strange.

Despite death threats from Argentina who claimed they would leave nothing to chance in a bid to nab it and have it for breakfast, the octopus still picked Spain over Germany despite residing in Germany.

So, there you have it. Spain one of the greatest under-achievers in world football, have made history by getting into the finals. They face off with Holland in a battle of wits, possession football and patience.

The Germany-Spain tie was reminiscent of the Barcelona–Arsenal second leg tie where the Gunners were reduced to chasing shadows for the better part of the evening. With up to seven Barcelona players in the starting line–up, it’s easy to see why Vicente Del Bosque opted to go for possession tactic and deny the Germans the counter attacking option that has worked efficiently for the German machine.

As for the finals, it looks like an evenly balanced affair. Surprisingly, the two teams have played each other only nine times, with each side winning four and one draw. So there are bits and pieces of history to be sewn together.

Both teams bid to win the World Cup for the first time. Spain will be at pains to deliver the trophy and drop the innocuous title of being the only team to have been ranked first in Fifa rankings but never having won the world title.

Greater pedigree

Every World Cup final since the quadrennial tournament began in 1930 has involved at least one of just four teams: Brazil, Italy, Germany and Argentina, according to the Time Magazine. That this year’s final will break that 80-year quadropoly is cause for celebration: Either Spain or Holland will win the World Cup for the first time on Sunday at Johannesburg’s Soccer City on Sunday. The last time a country won the cup for the first time was France in 1998 and before that Argentina in 1978.

Of Sunday’s contestants, the Dutch have the greater pedigree having twice lost the final (in 1974 and 1978) to probably inferior sides, according to pundits (Germany and Argentina respectively).

But Spain are reigning European champions and were ranked favourites to win the 2010 World Cup by many pundits ahead of the tournament.

To be sure, anyone who had read most pre-World Cup predictions and then tuned out the tournament till the final game would be a lot more surprised to find Holland in the final than they would be to see Spain.

Indeed, even the Dutch team’s management had expected an earlier exit — they didn’t book hotel accommodation in South Africa beyond July 5. The Dutch only had reservations until Monday at the Sandton Hilton hotel in Johannesburg because they probably did not expect to make it to the last week of the tournament. However, their run in the tournament to the finals meant they had to make contingency measures.

Not that Holland was lacking stature. On the contrary, they arrived in South Africa on the back of a 23-game unbeaten run, the only team that managed to maintain a 100 per cent record in the qualifying campaign.

Their lavishly talented attacking trio of Robin Van Persie, Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder were clearly going to pose a major threat to most rivals, while the likes of the steely duo of Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong at the base of the midfield would screen an unremarkable defence from excessive interrogation by opposing forwards.

The problem, most pundits predicted, was that the luck of the draw determined they would face the mighty Brazil in the quarter-finals, should both teams win all their games — which they did. And conventional wisdom held that Holland’s considerable talents would be no match for those of Brazil, whom most had picked to be the ones facing Spain in the final.

This Dutch team has hardly dominated its opponents —Uruguay were dispatched by a margin of 3-2 in the semi-final — although in none of their games did they appear in any serious danger of losing.

Like the Brazilians they sucker punched, this Dutch team emphasised efficiency over their more artful traditional game. But it will take a Herculean effort to repeat the feat against the other tournament favourite on Sunday. In swatting aside a German team so rampant that it had three times scored four goals in a game during the tournament, the Spanish suggested they were only just getting going.

Despite concerns that the hard-running young Germans could rattle Spain’s possession game, the men in the red shirts once again conducted a passing master class:

Their confidence in possession is terrifying — Spain more than once took short free kicks to players who had an opposition defender literally on their backs, the gesture showing their players’ confidence in holding on to the ball no matter how close the opposition got.

On the rare occasion that they lost it, they simply grabbed it back within a split second. In the process, they played some breathtaking attacking football with little flicks and feints putting their players through — although that sometimes maddening Spanish habit of seeking to pass the ball all the way into the net rather than sometimes simply pulling the trigger was occasionally in evidence.

Growing confidence

Spain, with their embarrassment of riches in all the key attacking positions — Cesc Fabregas and Jesus Navas didn’t even make it on as subs against the Germans — and their growing confidence will surely start Sunday’s game as favourites.

But the Dutch know that starting as favourites can be a psychological burden, having twice lost World Cup finals from the same position. The world, and the home fans simply expect Spain to bring home the trophy; while the Dutch fans are pleasantly surprised to find their own team in the final. Holland can play with the freedom of the underdog on Sunday, and they have the resources to punish Spain — particularly with the speed of Robben on the right wing against Joan Capdevilla, and also the pace and close control through the middle of Van Persie and of course, the guile and creativity of Sneijder who is every bit a peer to the Spanish supremos Xavi and Iniesta.

The weight of expectation could drag Spain down. On the other hand, they could legitimately argue they are just beginning to find their rhythm. If both teams play at their best, you will have to give the edge to Spain.

However, in football, as in life, the future is unwritten. But the question lingers on which city will be lining up to receive the prestigious trophy, Amsterdam or Madrid?