Prepare for more cholera outbreaks, scientists warn

There is more bad news in store for Kenyans alarmed by the outbreaks of cholera in several parts of the country: Prepare for more.

According to recent research, East Africa will bear the brunt of cholera surges brought about by changes in global weather patterns associated with El Niño. Africa leads in the number of cholera deaths globally, but the studies indicate that the change in weather patterns is re-distributing the disease, sending more clusters of cholera to East Africa.

Disease-pattern experts from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health have been mapping the location of the clusters around El Niño years in the equatorial Pacific region, whose effects include increasing rainfall in East Africa as well as warmer weather.

Massive rainfall can overrun sewer systems and contaminate drinking water, while dry conditions can result in lack of clean water and therefore consumption of water from contaminated sources.

These are the risk factors for cholera, an infectious bacterial disease that typically causes severe vomiting and diarrhoea, and which is often fatal.

"We usually know when El Niño is coming six to 12 months before it occurs," said the researchers, adding that prompt supportive care can reduce the fatality rate from cholera from as high as 30 percent to next to nothing.

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