Why Raila needs Mudavadi to negotiate better after the handshake

 History tells us that Raila Odinga is excellent at creating the need for negotiation [Photo: Courtesy]

Politics, like investment, does not have hard-and-fast rules on the do’s and don’ts. Invariably, contextual factors come into play to determine the outcomes. It is only the interest that remains constant. The permanent interest is power. What one does with it upon acquiring it is what determines the kind of leader or ruler that he or she becomes.

In November last year, I wrote in this paper, asking Uhuru and Raila to give us back our country. My argument then was, and still is, that the two gentlemen share this country almost on a fifty-fifty basis with respect to proportion of political support that each of them enjoys among registered voters in Kenya. In political philosophy, it can be argued, that neither of them enjoys a higher minimum ethical consent of the people than the other.

It is therefore, instructive that, in terms of political support, they sit at a negotiating table as equals, with Uhuru only enjoying an extra feather on his cap of being the “first between equals” on account of his control of state machinery, including officially sanctioned means of violence. Raila, on the other hand, is the undisputed “People’s President”. These positions create the Locus Standi for Uhuru and Raila to negotiate on behalf of their constituencies without requiring further authentication or authorization from any quarters.

History tells us that Raila Odinga is excellent at creating the need for negotiation, but extremely poor at the bolts and nuts of negotiation itself, hence, the necessity of a more suave negotiator such as Mudavadi to be present at all meetings that involve negotiation. I am almost certain that Raila, on his own with Uhuru Kenyatta, would not push enough for what obviously appears as his reasonable entitlement given that many Kenyans believe his Presidency has been grabbed at gunpoint at least twice, and stolen once.

Ceding a lot of ground during political negotiations creates a lop-sided power structure, with more powers going to the more skilful side. It is however, not a sign of weakness. On the contrary, it depicts a gentleman who wants fairness in all situations, even if pursuit of fairness may result in unfairness to him. Now, this is exactly my problem with Raila as a negotiator on behalf of the people of Kenya. He may have allowed too much on the other side of the table, which may still be used to hurt his people.

But there is also this large, whale-sized elephant in the living room: the NASA co-principals who have persistently said that Raila did not consult with them, and certainly, did not receive their nod before embarking on the talks. In one sense, they are right. It is about trust and collegiality.

On the other hand, I believe, there was need to break the ice before opening up the negotiations to a larger group. It was therefore, critical for Uhuru and Raila to create the necessary goodwill first, then the rest would be consequential. In the absence of goodwill, then co-principals would have no framework within which to negotiate.

Second is the issue of interest among the players. All the NASA Co-principals harbor presidential ambition, and are on record as having stated that much.

Age too appears to be beckoning, infusing urgency into the presidential ambition. It is near-impossible to get them to agree to a formula that appears to either scuttle or postpone their personal presidential ambition, even if it favours the people of Kenya.

The issue of political back-stubbing is already in the public domain, with claims and counter-claims about night meetings with others whose interest in NASA is suspect. In circumstances such as we find ourselves in, it is difficult to be sure that Raila has betrayed anyone, even though it is apparent that one or more of the principals was/were either betrayed or about to be betrayed shortly before the now famous handshake between Uhuru and Raila.

May be it was a pre-emptive handshake in the nick of time. Who knows? May it please God that we are on a path to national reconciliation, healing and recovery.

 Dr Okoth Ongore is a lecturer, researcher, author and social commentator.