Global Review : Why Uhuru Will Not Defeat Raila

• Kenya's general elections to held on August 8 2017 with the main contenders being President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga.
• Opinion polls show that the two have a close margin but none has the 50 per cent plus 1 vote required by the Kenyan constitution.

On August 8th there will be an election in Kenya that will present the fiercest political battle in Kenya's recent history. The main contenders in this grand face-off will be the Incumbent President Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta versus the veteran Politician Raila Amollo Odinga. In the most recent opinion polls released by the poll companies showed the two having a close margin but none had the 50% plus 1 vote of the polls which is required in the Kenyan Constitution for one to become the Commander-In-chief.

By analyzing the recent global political experience , it is possible to see who will emerge a victor in this tight contest.

Nigerian Election  April 2015

In late April 2015, Nigerians had a general election which brought two contestants together. One was the Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and the Army General Muhammadu Buhari. It was so much thought that the Incumbent would retain the office but due to the most challenges facing Nigeria at the moment, including the Boko Haram insurgency, the Nigerians chose change over the status quo.

Muhammadu Buhari emerged victorious with a clear over 2 million votes.

Brexit Vote June 2016

On 23rd June 2016, the UK Premier David Cameron confidently called for a Referendum asking the people of the Great Britain whether or not to leave the European Single Market ,European Union. It was widely believed that the remain camp would win having that the Great Britain had a key role in the European Single Market and leaving was seen as near to impossible. However , the world was treated to a shock when the Brits decided to leave the market with a 51.9% voting for leave. That forced the then PM to resign and Theresa May took over to form the current government. That was a show of how people of Britain needed change of the next course of their economic future.

Trump's Victory November 2016

President Barack Obama's 8 years in power ended with a global shock when Trump was declared the winner in the 2016 US Elections. Even with Obama's Eloquent character he did not convince the US electorate to choose his preferred candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton. It was a political outsider and former Reality TV Show Celebrity Donald J Trump who got sworn in as the new US Commander-In-Chief. This was a show of how the US people preferred change over the retention of the status quo. 

Italy's Referendum December 2016

Matteo Renzi, the former Italian PM made a gamble of his lifetime in 2016 by calling for a Referendum to make changes on the country's Constitution. Italy has two law making bodies, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.Both have equal powers and both have to pass a bill for it to become law. The PM wanted to reduce the power of the Senate and its composition to make the Chamber of Deputies the main law making body. This would have made the law making process fast and efficient, according to him. If he lose he would have to resign. On December 5th 2016 the PM was shocked after losing with close to 60% of the votes saying no to his proposals. That was a real blow to the established political class and it sent another shocker to the European region which had just experienced Brexit.

Ghana's Election December 2016

Back in Africa, in the same year of political turbulence, Ghana held an Election which brought two political big wigs head to head. The then Incumbent President John Mahama and Nana Akufo-addo. It was in all peoples thoughts that the race would be tight but the Incumbent would emerge victor either fairly or unfairly. However, Africa and of course the world was treated with yet again a great shocker when the underdog Nana Akufo-Addo emerged the winner. The Incumbent humbly telephoned the President Elect and congratulated him on his unexpected win. This was a clear show of political maturity of the west African country and the need for change by the modern African Electorate.

The Projection August 8th

According to these recent global political scenarios, it is easier to clearly see which side the Kenyan Electorate will lean to. This time its is the same as seen in these other polls where the electorate is presented with two choices, to retain the status quo or to bring in change. Most issues in this year's election resemble the same global issues with economy taking the center stage. Most voters in Kenya are youth who are being faced with a global issue of unemployment. The current government has achieved highly in building infrastructure but the most urgent need for jobs has not been met hence most youth may express their displeasure through the vote in August 8th.

Whereas the Jubilee manifesto has so ambitious projects and promises, the NASA manifesto will be more acceptable as it will be seen as the most realistic hence achievable.

Whether one is a follower of Jubilee or NASA, we will wait and see which side will win after the votes are cast and counted. According to most Elections Experts, it is perceived that the elections will be PEACEFUL and TRANSPARENT.