Reasons why DP Ruto should not expect 100% support from Mt.Kenya

Do you still remember Senator Paul Njoroge? I don’t have his verbatim but the context of his  found fame or infamy, depending on your political divide, is as a result of him insinuating that DP William Samoei Ruto should not expect 100% support from Mt.Kenya (excluding Embu, Mbeere and Meru) come 2022.

I am tempted to agree with him. He was being brutally honest. He simply echoed what a good number of us saying behind closed doors, in bars, markets and other social gatherings.

There are some glaring facts about the man that will definitely work against him. Let me mention just but six of them.

Number one is his extroverted persona. Any person who has interacted with him or has heard him speak can attest to it, that he comes across as abrasive, belligerent, take-no-prisoners kind of a general. He makes Rtd General Karangi and General Mwathethe look like priests. In fact he should have considered a career in the military. Unlike Uhuru or Kibaki, he is not a moderate but a conservative, a micro-manager who does not give others breathing space, a younger version of Moi. He was painted as an ODM radical during the Serena talks not to mention the recent IEBC stalemate.

Number two is his history. Throughout his political career, he has come to be associated with events that pushed Kenya to the brink. Two of them stand out; Youth for Kanu ’92 and 2007-2008 post-election violence. It is a well-known fact that YK ’92 outfit was a beneficiary of Golden berg scandal. For the first time since independence we witnessed a hyper-inflation. Nobody knows the actual amount of money we lost in the fictitious export compensation schemes. Economist Terry Ryan shocked the nation when he insinuated before Justice Bosire Commission that the effects of the scandal would be felt for three generations.

Eldoret North constituency experienced the worst case of post-election violence. Even though the DP was discharged by ICC, the image of an elderly woman wailing outside a burning Kiambaa is still entrenched in our minds. It remains a living example of how juvenile political contestations can degenerate into barbarism which we previously read in the history of medieval Europe.

Number three, the Kikuyu support is not based on honesty or trust but on paranoia, fear of the unknown. Argument by those baying for Njoroge’s blood, is that Kikuyus in the Rift Valley have borne the brunt of violence and they would like to avoid a recurrence by supporting Ruto. If this is not intimidation I don’t know what it is.

Just to point out, the illusion of healing and reconciliation is pure fallacy. The Grand Coalition and Jubilee government have both spent billions of tax payers money resettling IDPs. People who were uprooted from their homes never returned back. Healing and reconciliation is a tale being spun by beneficiaries of the violence to further their political interests. As long as Agenda four remains unimplemented, reconciliation will remain a mirage.

Number four, is the diversity of Kalenjin community. Unlike the Kikuyus, Kalenjins are a conglomerate of various sub-tribes. Come 2022, Ruto will find it very hard to accommodate interests of each and every sub-tribe. Already there grumbling among the Kipsigis, Tugen, Marakwet and Pokot. Let us also not forget Gideon Moi who has the financial muscle to give William a run for his money. The older Moi is also bitter and has never forgiven Ruto for dethroning him as the King of Kalenjin.

Number five is the issue of exclusivity. This issue reared its ugly head in 2007 leading to 1 vs 41 contest the aftermath of which we all recall. By 2022, two tribes will have ruled Kenya for 59 years, Kalenjin 24 years and Kikuyu 35 years. This is a scenario the opposition will gladly exploit.

Lastly, the Kiambu mafia or the St. Mary’s club harbors deep-seated suspicions against him. In public they may feign support but in private they are working to ensure that a trustworthy, malleable and moderate candidate is identified and propped up before 2022. Need I mention that Kikuyu transition ceremony ituika that was supposed to be held from 1925-1928 has never happened?

To the uninformed, let me make it clearly that the issue of kurudisha mkono never applies in politics. Since the time Of Julius Caesar and Alexander the great, backstabbing has always been associated with politics, the struggle to control principalities. And as Winston Churchill said, “Eating words has never given a politician indigestion”. The odds are stack against the DP it’s a pity we don’t bet in politics.