Litmus test for Ruto as political and economic crises get worse

President William Ruto. He is working to rein in the runaway cost of living and ensure a political truce with Raila Odinga holds. [File, Standard ] President William Ruto resumes official public duties after the Easter weekend as the country grapples with political and economic crises. Safeguarding and moving forward towards tangible outcomes of the political truce he recently inked with opposition leader Raila Odinga will be key focus for President Ruto with a weight of national expectation on his shoulders, said governance experts. The president is also under immense pressure to manage the unfolding economic crisis his government is facing marked by cash crunch amid claims of profligate and lavish spending, economic analysts said. Consumer lobbies noted that Ruto has another daunting challenge of reining in the runaway cost of living that has upset many Kenyans and stoked social tensions. On Tuesday, analysts said how effectively Ruto responds to this perfect storm of monumental social, political and economic crises could define the future and trajectory of his young government. "Political tension, the rising cost of living amidst rising debt repayment could combine to make perfect storm that would put Kenya on the pathway to instability," Joab Okanda, a senior adviser of the London-based not-for-profit organisation, Christian Aid, told The Standard. State House spokesperson Hussein Mohamed said that the president's focus is on making the lives of Kenyans better and he would not be distracted. "President Ruto has a contract with Kenyans to better their lives, every day that is what occupies his mind, time, and energy, he took over the government when the economy was in the doldrums, and through policy decisions, in few months everything is looking up," Hussein said. Experts have warned that the uncertainty associated with an increasingly unstable political environment may reduce investment and the pace of economic development if left unchecked. Compromises and concessions will be needed each step of the way analysts and various interest groups have cautioned, as Ruto seeks to end the economy sapping uncertainty and ring-fence the truce. Business leaders, civil society religious leaders, and various interest groups have hailed the political rapprochement between Raila and President Ruto warning that the increasingly fragile political order that had been marked by disruptive demonstrations is not conducive for business and the battered economy. "I encourage all parties to seek reconciliation and find ways to constructively and meaningfully engage each other on the challenges facing Kenya," said US President Joe Biden's ally and Delaware Senator Chris Coons. Mr Coons who issued a statement following his recent visit to Kenya said: "Kenya has become an important hub for investment. Continuing to uphold the rule of law and avoiding ongoing political violence will be critical to Kenya's economic growth and opportunities." President William Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua at State House, Nairobi. [File, Standard] The Delaware Senator said to preserve and strengthen democracy, political leaders must put the public's interest above their own, demonstrate respect for fundamental rights, and protect space for criticism and dissent. Coons visit was variously seen as having laid a strong basis for the political truce between Ruto and the opposition leader. The US senator is said to have played a significant role in the 2018 'handshake' between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila. Coons the Democratic Senator for Delaware which is Biden's home state spoke even as the truce which has been welcomed in business circles faces an acid test from hardliners within the government and opposition camps. Ruto is also expected to confront the economic crisis facing his government. While executive orders give the president leeway to introduce policy unilaterally and relatively quickly, effecting change through financial programmes like subsidies is not on the table amid a biting cash crunch. President Ruto's Council of Economic Advisers Chair David Ndii on Saturday hinted that the government is facing an acute cash crunch amid unprecedented salary delays for civil servants at the national and county governments. Global creditors will be keenly watching the State House and the National Treasury as Dr Ndii's comments have fuelled anxiety about the State of the public coffers. "The government, past and current, would have known this very basic fact of economic life; it is not a sudden revelation," said Deepak Dave of Riverside Advisory. "The question is, as the most senior Economic adviser to State House, what is Dr Ndii advocating? Is he saying default is all we now have left?" posed Dave yesterday, adding that the ambiguity of Ndii's statement "is worrying." To demonstrate the magnitude of the crisis, Ndii revealed that Ruto's administration avoided a default on its sovereign debt obligations without divulging additional details on the economic risk. "The admission to the public by a top economic adviser to the president that something has to give way at a time when civil servants haven't been paid their salaries must worry all of all us," Mr Okanda of the Christian Aid said. "I am sure the resident has taken some time over Easter to reflect on some of the actions or inaction that his government has taken including not walking the talk on austerity where it should be applied and unnecessary government appointments,"he said. Okanda said the suspension of demonstrations by the opposition offers the government an opportunity to focus on revenue collection and spending on social sectors that the poor depend on most. "The President must honor the Social Contract he entered jnto with the people of Kenya," he said. President Ruto's Council of Economic Advisers Chair David Ndii. [File, Standard] The national government has not disbursed Sh92 billion equitable share revenue to county governments since the beginning of the year, which threatens to ground their operations "A default is a failure by a country's government to pay its debt and has grave financial implications for the economy," Ndii tweeted as salary delays for civil servants threatened to fuel political and union tensions in the country. The government has delayed paying March salaries for most of its public sector workers, a sign of a major financial crisis. The civil servants and unions are now threatening to down their tools from tomorrow (Tuesday). Ndii revealed that the cash-strapped government has now been forced to prioritise other crucial state expenditures like honouring debt obligations over salaries. Analysts warned the acute salary delays might lead to the government shutdown of services if workers make good on their vow to down tools at a time the young Ruto administration needs all hands on deck to deliver on its ambitious capital expensive colourful elections promises. The president also faces the monumental task of addressing the cost of living crisis that is further burdening the already economically strained Kenyans. Ruto has the daunting task of creating jobs for the low-income segments of society against a backdrop of a slowing economy and lesser finances even after instructing Kenya Revenue Authority to ensure it collects an extra Sh600 billion by the end of this financial year. Kenyans are having to dig deeper into their pockets to purchase basic commodities as inflation edges up on high food and fuel prices. Data released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics recently indicates inflation for the month of March remained stubbornly high at 9.2 per cent, the same as in the previous month of February. The latest figures point to tough times ahead even as millions of Kenyans have had to squeeze their household budgets to afford basic commodities that have become more expensive compared to last year.

Litmus test for Ruto as political and economic crises get worse

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