Pros and cons of Raila's calls for talks that mirror National Accord

Mwai Kibaki (seated left) and Raila Odinga sign a power-sharing deal to end the violence unleashed by 2007's disputed election. Right, William Ruto. [File, Standard] Fresh demands by the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition led by Raila Odinga for talks akin to the 2008 National Accord has created a spin as Kenyans await the much-awaited talks with Kenya Kwanza administration. Last Tuesday, Raila said it was improbable that all the issues raised by Azimio could be tackled by the bipartisan team suggested by President William Ruto in parliament but could instead be resolved through a process similar to the national accord. Raila later chaired an extraordinary parliamentary group meeting at Maanzoni Lodge attended by Azimio leaders from all counties and the national level on Thursday where they selected seven MPs to represent them in the talks. Among the leaders selected include Narok senator Ledama Ole Kina, Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna, Kitui senator Enoch Wambua and Malindi MP Amina Mnyanzi. Others are Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo, Pokot South MP David PKosing and Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo. Despite clarifying that they are not interested in joining the government, the statement over the National Accord raised eyebrows before Azimio leaders came out to clarify that all they wanted was for dialogue to take place outside Parliament similar to the Kofi Annan-led process of 2008. The Kenya Kwanza side now, however, insists that by demanding for a National Accord-like process, all Raila and his group want is to open debate about the 2022 presidential poll won by President William Ruto so that they join government. Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei called Azimio demands unrealistic, illegal, unconstitutional and primitive, arguing that the last election was concluded conclusively and is not open for discussion. He described Azimio demands for such talks as a pipe dream, claiming the dialogue will be about power sharing and not the people. "Raila lost the 2022 polls and the olive branch extended by President Ruto for dialogue was not out of fear or caving into his unrealistic demands of power-sharing but about wananchi. Tinga (Raila) is hungry for power," said Cherargei. Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has, however, responded that they will ignore such statements and wait for President Ruto to clarify how the MPs will hold the talks because he is the one who called for a bipartisan process. He doesn't see a big difference between the Azimio proposal and Ruto's because parliamentary standing orders are meant for debate in the House and not talks between parties as suggested by the president. "We have agreed to have members of parliament represent the coalitions but the talks to be held outside parliament without being constrained by parliamentary laws and procedures," says Sifuna. He cautioned against loose talk that could derail the process, adding that Raila had requested his team to avoid making statements that could create a hostile atmosphere that is not conducive for dialogue. The demands raised by the Azimio leadership have however not been clear, because their demands keep changing every week ranging from the opening of IEBC servers, reinstatement of four IEBC commissioners and reducing the cost of food. Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga during a past event at the Vila Rosa Kempinski, Nairobi. [Boniface Okendo, Standard] The list has since increased and now includes a raft of constitutional and legislative changes and other demands like the reduction of the cost of fuel, school fees and house rent, among others. Asked why Raila and his team keep raising the bar on their demands, including the call for a national accord-like format for talks, Professor of History and International Relations Macharia Munene said it is all about political gamesmanship. "Raila's demands are aimed at eliciting response and keeping their supporters and opponents engaged as much as possible and he has done it very successfully," says Prof Munene. He says the Azimio leader wants to drive the political agenda and in the process not only remain relevant politically but also hold his team together as they gleefully drag President Ruto and his government into confrontation. This week Ruto dismissed any room for a handshake with Raila and his allies. "Do I look like someone who would agree to a handshake. I simply told Raila to stop the demonstrations. Take the talks to parliament. What is important is that he looks to the future because elections are now behind us," said Ruto. So what options does Azimio have now that Ruto remains adamant that talks can only be held in Parliament and not outside? Political analyst Martin Andati says it opens room for further talks before proper dialogue takes place because Azimio still wants a comprehensive discussion done outside Parliament so that they can agree on the issues to be tabled in the House. "Azimio came up with the list of seven MPs after Ruto remained adamant but the process is still going to have challenges because all the issues raised cannot be handled by Parliament where the rules limit what they can talk about," says Andati. So, Kenyans should expect another stand-off over the issues to be tabled for discussion among them challenges facing multi-party democracy through party hopping. It appears Ruto's side is only willing to discuss electoral reforms some of them similar to what was contained in the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) report championed by President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila that was declared unconstitutional by the courts. Other issues like tackling the high cost of living will not go to Parliament because all that Azimio is calling for is for the government to just allocate money for subsidies. The challenge is that Kenya Kwanza MPs have already scoffed at the measures proposed by Azimio, telling them that they will not use their policies to run the government because they have their own manifesto to implement. President William Ruto makes an address at State House, Nairobi, on April 2, 2023. [Edward Kiplimo, Standard] But some of the issues Azimio is raising, especially those touching on the poor are resonating with the masses and that is why Kenya Kwanza may not ignore them. "To remain with the masses, Azimio will continue talking about issues that appeal to them because they have managed to capture that constituency, which makes it really difficult for the government because it also campaigned on the hustler's platform," says Andati. Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University argues that meaningful talks can only take place outside parliament as demanded by Azimio because the two principals must take charge of what will be happening. 'What they are saying is that the principals should retain control of the negotiations to create a consensus for whatever goes to parliament for enactment to make it difficult for MPs to change anything," says Naituli. Naituli noted that from their statements and body language, it appears Azimio leaders think President Ruto is not negotiating in good faith, especially his brazen demands that talks only be held in parliament. He also argues that the Kenyan parliament has lost credibility because the MPs are only interested in pursuing personal interests and not those affecting ordinary people in their constituencies. "Since 2013 under Jubilee, parliament was captured by the executive and it is now even worse, that is why Azimio is adamant on everything being discussed outside by a bipartisan team," says Naituli. He thinks Azimio will have no alternative but to go back to the streets should the negotiations fail because the masses feel let down by the government that has not delivered what it promised, especially in reducing the cost of living. It is therefore in the government's interest to negotiate and not necessarily Azimio's because it is becoming difficult for it to deliver its promises and to meet the high hopes created during the elections. Naituli says the bipartisan team can agree to remove taxes on food and the cost of living will shoot down the same day it is announced because 70 per cent of the cost is caused by taxation levies. "The seven MPs picked by Azimio are people who can make decisions quickly and are also able to know whether UDA is serious or not and inform the principals over the next course of actions."

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